England Lions Tour of West Indies Unofficial ODIs: West Indies A vs England Lions

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold England Lions (46%) · England Lions at 71¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 21

West Indies A29¢England Lions71¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

England Lions

Consensus Traders

England Lions 46%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

-$117.84

Smart Money Entry

74.8¢ → 71¢

-5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralEngland Lions at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

England Lions

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

West Indies A29%

England Lions71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

England Lions6 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares4,867

Combined PnL-$140.1

West Indies A7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares5,281

Combined PnL+$22.26

England Lions — 46%West Indies A — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	England Lionsavg 75¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$124.58	51% 3878-3660 (7538)
NA nanir488CTR	West Indies Aavg 25¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$25	47% 14-16 (30)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	England Lionsavg 74.4¢	$372.62	$360.36	-$12.26	39% 563-895 (1458)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	West Indies Aavg 50¢	$298.83	$193.85	+$24.5	52% 852-801 (1653)
└ West Indies A leg	West Indies Aavg 50¢	$149.42	$119.53	-$29.88
└ England Lions leg	England Lionsavg 50¢	$61.93	$74.31	+$54.38
SM smithagent<$100	England Lionsavg 74.8¢	$98.79	$96.6	-$2.19	45% 679-837 (1516)
probabilityCTR<$100	West Indies Aavg 19¢	$42.7	$42.78	+$24.44	52% 33-31 (64)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	West Indies Aavg 25¢	$25	$40	+$15	53% 7148-6248 (13396)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	England Lionsavg 55¢	$24.44	$26.67	+$2.22	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
dips.<$100	England Lionsavg 74¢	$22.12	$17.93	-$4.18	47% 993-1122 (2115)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	West Indies Aavg 25.4¢	$76.46	$14.04	+$2.49	48% 280-301 (581)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	West Indies Aavg 21¢	$5.9	$11.24	+$5.34	45% 300-362 (662)
38 38791873984189<$100	England Lionsavg 73.8¢	$48.53	$9.72	+$0.89	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	West Indies Aavg 28¢	$2.62	$2.62	+$0	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	West Indies Aavg 40¢	$0.67	$0.67	+$0	50% 2543-2505 (5048)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

England Lions

Invested

$3,114.4

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$124.58

Record

51%

3878-3660 (7538)

nanir488CTR

West Indies A

Invested

$1,250

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$25

Record

47%

14-16 (30)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

England Lions

Invested

$372.62

Value

$360.36

PnL

-$12.26

Record

39%

563-895 (1458)

NotJumpARB<$100

West Indies A

Invested

$298.83

Value

$193.85

PnL

+$24.5

Record

52%

852-801 (1653)

Both legs:

West Indies A$149.4250¢-$29.88

England Lions$61.9350¢+$54.38

smithagent<$100

England Lions

Invested

$98.79

Value

$96.6

PnL

-$2.19

Record

45%

679-837 (1516)

probabilityCTR<$100

West Indies A

Invested

$42.7

Value

$42.78

PnL

+$24.44

Record

52%

33-31 (64)

cigarettesCTR<$100

West Indies A

Invested

$25

Value

$40

PnL

+$15

Record

53%

7148-6248 (13396)

topdogbigboi<$100

England Lions

Invested

$24.44

Value

$26.67

PnL

+$2.22

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

dips.<$100

England Lions

Invested

$22.12

Value

$17.93

PnL

-$4.18

Record

47%

993-1122 (2115)

GaditimaCTR<$100

West Indies A

Invested

$76.46

Value

$14.04

PnL

+$2.49

Record

48%

280-301 (581)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

West Indies A

Invested

$5.9

Value

$11.24

PnL

+$5.34

Record

45%

300-362 (662)

38791873984189<$100

England Lions

Invested

$48.53

Value

$9.72

PnL

+$0.89

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

West Indies A

Invested

$2.62

Value

$2.62

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

West Indies A

Invested

$0.67

Value

$0.67

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

Research grade

NeutralEngland Lions at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

England Lions

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that England Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.