ACC Men's U19 Asia Cup: Pakistan Under-19s vs Nepal Under-19s
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Pakistan Under-19s (75%) · Pakistan Under-19s at 98¢ · $292 held · ends Nov 17
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Neutral
Pakistan Under-19s
4
Pakistan Under-19s 75%
$292.11
$189.73
Research grade
NeutralPakistan Under-19s at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR | Nepal Under-19savg 2¢ | $48.25 | $238.23 | +$189.98 | 21% 73-279 (352) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100 | Pakistan Under-19savg 98.4¢ | $34.44 | $34.3 | -$0.14 | 9% 34-365 (399) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Pakistan Under-19savg 99¢ | $10 | $9.9 | -$0.1 | 40% 2998-4409 (7407) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Pakistan Under-19savg 98¢ | $9.69 | $9.69 | +$0 | 19% 93-406 (499) |
Invested
$48.25
Value
$238.23
PnL
+$189.98
Record
21%
73-279 (352)
Invested
$34.44
Value
$34.3
PnL
-$0.14
Record
9%
34-365 (399)
Invested
$10
Value
$9.9
PnL
-$0.1
Record
40%
2998-4409 (7407)
Invested
$9.69
Value
$9.69
PnL
+$0
Record
19%
93-406 (499)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.