ICC Women's Emerging Nations Trophy T20s: Sri Lanka Women vs Papua New Guinea Women

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Sri Lanka Women (58%) · Sri Lanka Women at 97¢ · $648 held · ends Nov 22

Sri Lanka Women97¢Papua New Guinea Women3¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sri Lanka Women

Consensus Traders

Sri Lanka Women 58%

Total Value

$648.32

Combined PnL

$57.09

Smart Money Entry

90.2¢ → 97¢

+8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralSri Lanka Women at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sri Lanka Women

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Sri Lanka Women97%

Papua New Guinea Women3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sri Lanka Women7 traders

Total Value$439.62

Total Shares446

Combined PnL+$32.3

Papua New Guinea Women5 traders

Total Value$208.7

Total Shares8,762

Combined PnL+$24.8

Sri Lanka Women — 58%Papua New Guinea Women — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
poshposh	Sri Lanka Womenavg 96.7¢	$145.14	$147.68	+$2.54	49% 1298-1372 (2670)
MI midwicket72CTR	Papua New Guinea Womenavg 2.1¢	$87.92	$123.07	+$35.15	33% 11-22 (33)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107	Sri Lanka Womenavg 96.5¢	$98.5	$100	+$1.5	12% 60-444 (504)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Sri Lanka Womenavg 98.5¢	$99.99	$99.58	-$0.41	38% 323-526 (849)
dips.CTR	Papua New Guinea Womenavg 2.1¢	$748.17	$44.43	-$1.57	48% 1283-1366 (2649)
0X 0x17bec72f65b07cacd12000a0ba0ba162b6b7c52b<$100	Sri Lanka Womenavg 63.5¢	$26.09	$40.31	+$14.22	67% 18-9 (27)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Papua New Guinea Womenavg 2¢	$31.72	$28.48	-$0.81	46% 862-1002 (1864)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Sri Lanka Womenavg 20.6¢	$7.6	$21.99	+$14.39	62% 263-160 (423)
PA pauleta23<$100	Sri Lanka Womenavg 96¢	$20	$19.9	-$0.1	42% 549-751 (1300)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Papua New Guinea Womenavg 2.1¢	$20.48	$12.48	-$8	34% 449-883 (1332)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Sri Lanka Womenavg 96.8¢	$10	$10.16	+$0.17	38% 3787-6190 (9977)
probabilityCTR<$100	Papua New Guinea Womenavg 1.6¢	$0.21	$0.24	+$0.03	50% 33-33 (66)

poshposh

Sri Lanka Women

Invested

$145.14

Value

$147.68

PnL

+$2.54

Record

49%

1298-1372 (2670)

midwicket72CTR

Papua New Guinea Women

Invested

$87.92

Value

$123.07

PnL

+$35.15

Record

33%

11-22 (33)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107

Sri Lanka Women

Invested

$98.5

Value

$100

PnL

+$1.5

Record

12%

60-444 (504)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Sri Lanka Women

Invested

$99.99

Value

$99.58

PnL

-$0.41

Record

38%

323-526 (849)

dips.CTR

Papua New Guinea Women

Invested

$748.17

Value

$44.43

PnL

-$1.57

Record

48%

1283-1366 (2649)

0x17bec72f65b07cacd12000a0ba0ba162b6b7c52b<$100

Sri Lanka Women

Invested

$26.09

Value

$40.31

PnL

+$14.22

Record

67%

18-9 (27)

smithagentCTR<$100

Papua New Guinea Women

Invested

$31.72

Value

$28.48

PnL

-$0.81

Record

46%

862-1002 (1864)

thatsabing0<$100

Sri Lanka Women

Invested

$7.6

Value

$21.99

PnL

+$14.39

Record

62%

263-160 (423)

pauleta23<$100

Sri Lanka Women

Invested

$20

Value

$19.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

42%

549-751 (1300)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Papua New Guinea Women

Invested

$20.48

Value

$12.48

PnL

-$8

Record

34%

449-883 (1332)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Sri Lanka Women

Invested

$10

Value

$10.16

PnL

+$0.17

Record

38%

3787-6190 (9977)

probabilityCTR<$100

Papua New Guinea Women

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.24

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

33-33 (66)

Research grade

NeutralSri Lanka Women at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Sri Lanka Women

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sri Lanka Women wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.