Big Bash League, Women: Adelaide Strikers vs Brisbane Heat

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Brisbane Heat (86%) · Brisbane Heat at 96¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 12

Adelaide Strikers5¢Brisbane Heat95¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Brisbane Heat

Consensus Traders

Brisbane Heat 86%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.6K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 95.5¢

+72% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBrisbane Heat at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Brisbane Heat

6 of 7 top traders (86%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Adelaide Strikers5%

Brisbane Heat96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Brisbane Heat6 traders

Total Value$14.2K

Total Shares14,889

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Adelaide Strikers1 trader

Total Value$734.84

Total Shares1,515

Combined PnL-$265.15

Brisbane Heat — 86%Adelaide Strikers — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Brisbane Heatavg 49.2¢	$3.6K	$4.9K	+$1.3K	53% 23096-20320 (43416)
DI dips.	Brisbane Heatavg 61.4¢	$3.8K	$4.7K	+$884.52	47% 10561-12091 (22652)
MI midwicket72ARB<$100	Adelaide Strikersavg 57¢	$9.1K	$4.3K	$-4.9K	54% 261-224 (485)
└ Brisbane Heat leg	Brisbane Heatavg 42¢	$1.4K	$3.2K	+$1.7K
└ Adelaide Strikers leg	Adelaide Strikersavg 57¢	$7.7K	$1.1K	$-6.6K
TO topdogbigboi	Brisbane Heatavg 53¢	$3.7K	$3.5K	-$131.55	47% 11626-13289 (24915)
tradecraft	Brisbane Heatavg 62.9¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$53.53	51% 6322-6104 (12426)
RI RichieRicherARB<$100	Adelaide Strikersavg 54.3¢	$1.1K	$999.67	-$90.35	54% 791-674 (1465)
└ Adelaide Strikers leg	Adelaide Strikersavg 54.3¢	$643.44	$557.08	-$86.36
└ Brisbane Heat leg	Brisbane Heatavg 53.5¢	$446.58	$442.59	-$3.99
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Adelaide Strikersavg 66¢	$1.5K	$734.84	-$265.15	51% 4022-3922 (7944)
PA pauleta23ARB<$100	Brisbane Heatavg 43.4¢	$179.91	$206.43	+$26.51	66% 24175-12299 (36474)
└ Brisbane Heat leg	Brisbane Heatavg 43.4¢	$123.4	$150.62	+$27.22
└ Adelaide Strikers leg	Adelaide Strikersavg 47.6¢	$56.51	$55.81	-$0.71
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	Brisbane Heatavg 47.3¢	$105.44	$115.32	+$9.88	42% 7959-11149 (19108)
└ Brisbane Heat leg	Brisbane Heatavg 47.3¢	$69.6	$77.91	+$8.31
└ Adelaide Strikers leg	Adelaide Strikersavg 45¢	$35.84	$37.41	+$1.57
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Adelaide Strikersavg 41¢	$99.93	$90.79	-$9.14	51% 25532-24237 (49769)
└ Adelaide Strikers leg	Adelaide Strikersavg 41¢	$81.03	$47.42	-$33.62
└ Brisbane Heat leg	Brisbane Heatavg 33.1¢	$18.9	$43.37	+$24.47
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Brisbane Heatavg 92¢	$4.6	$4.6	+$0	35% 18775-34811 (53586)
probability<$100	Brisbane Heatavg 32¢	$1.66	$2.69	+$1.04	42% 1530-2142 (3672)

cigarettes

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$3,626.82

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

53%

23096-20320 (43416)

dips.

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$3,767.93

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$884.52

Record

47%

10561-12091 (22652)

midwicket72ARB<$100

Adelaide Strikers

Invested

$9,149.22

Value

$4.3K

PnL

$-4.9K

Record

54%

261-224 (485)

Both legs:

Brisbane Heat$1,445.2542¢+$1.7K

Adelaide Strikers$7,703.9757¢$-6.6K

topdogbigboi

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$3,666.84

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$131.55

Record

47%

11626-13289 (24915)

tradecraft

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$1,189.4

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$53.53

Record

51%

6322-6104 (12426)

RichieRicherARB<$100

Adelaide Strikers

Invested

$1,090.02

Value

$999.67

PnL

-$90.35

Record

54%

791-674 (1465)

Both legs:

Adelaide Strikers$643.4454.3¢-$86.36

Brisbane Heat$446.5853.5¢-$3.99

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Adelaide Strikers

Invested

$1,515.14

Value

$734.84

PnL

-$265.15

Record

51%

4022-3922 (7944)

pauleta23ARB<$100

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$179.91

Value

$206.43

PnL

+$26.51

Record

66%

24175-12299 (36474)

Both legs:

Brisbane Heat$123.443.4¢+$27.22

Adelaide Strikers$56.5147.6¢-$0.71

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$105.44

Value

$115.32

PnL

+$9.88

Record

42%

7959-11149 (19108)

Both legs:

Brisbane Heat$69.647.3¢+$8.31

Adelaide Strikers$35.8445¢+$1.57

FlaznorpARB<$100

Adelaide Strikers

Invested

$99.93

Value

$90.79

PnL

-$9.14

Record

51%

25532-24237 (49769)

Both legs:

Adelaide Strikers$81.0341¢-$33.62

Brisbane Heat$18.933.1¢+$24.47

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

18775-34811 (53586)

probability<$100

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$1.66

Value

$2.69

PnL

+$1.04

Record

42%

1530-2142 (3672)

Research grade

NeutralBrisbane Heat at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Brisbane Heat

6 of 7 top traders (86%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Brisbane Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.