Will St. Vincent and the Grenadines vs. Belize end in a draw?
5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (42%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 42%
$1.9K
$101.11
86.1¢ → 100¢
+16% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 85.4¢ | $1.3K | $1.5K | +$198.96 | 49% 4276-4505 (8781) |
TH thirdt1me | Noavg 90¢ | $157.5 | $157.5 | +$0 | 48% 304-328 (632) |
NO NotJump<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $90.17 | $90.17 | +$0 | 51% 954-911 (1865) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Yesavg 21¢ | $128.37 | $61.1 | -$67.27 | 38% 1162-1897 (3059) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $63.98 | $26.66 | -$37.32 | 37% 1155-1943 (3098) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $22.13 | $24.9 | +$2.77 | 52% 2345-2123 (4468) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $9.4 | $9.65 | +$0.25 | 38% 3735-6037 (9772) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $6.93 | $8.1 | +$1.17 | 56% 595-469 (1064) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $3.6 | $6 | +$2.4 | 37% 1136-1943 (3079) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $2.08 | $2.08 | -$0 | 37% 1136-1917 (3053) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $2 | $2 | -$0 | 48% 2318-2517 (4835) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.63 | $1.79 | +$0.16 | 38% 1276-2064 (3340) |
Invested
$1,300.15
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$198.96
Record
49%
4276-4505 (8781)
Invested
$157.5
Value
$157.5
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
304-328 (632)
Invested
$90.17
Value
$90.17
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
954-911 (1865)
Invested
$128.37
Value
$61.1
PnL
-$67.27
Record
38%
1162-1897 (3059)
Invested
$63.98
Value
$26.66
PnL
-$37.32
Record
37%
1155-1943 (3098)
Invested
$22.13
Value
$24.9
PnL
+$2.77
Record
52%
2345-2123 (4468)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$9.65
PnL
+$0.25
Record
38%
3735-6037 (9772)
Invested
$6.93
Value
$8.1
PnL
+$1.17
Record
56%
595-469 (1064)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$6
PnL
+$2.4
Record
37%
1136-1943 (3079)
Invested
$2.08
Value
$2.08
PnL
-$0
Record
37%
1136-1917 (3053)
Invested
$2
Value
$2
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
2318-2517 (4835)
Invested
$1.63
Value
$1.79
PnL
+$0.16
Record
38%
1276-2064 (3340)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.