Will French Guiana win on 2026-11-14?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 77¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes77¢No23¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$311.53

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 77¢

+48% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes77%

No23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$732.8

Total Shares1,046

Combined PnL+$238.55

Yes3 traders

Total Value$835.98

Total Shares1,468

Combined PnL+$72.98

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 47¢	$449.26	$693.01	+$243.75	36% 975-1701 (2676)
DA DanielsDixon	Yesavg 53¢	$530	$580	+$50	21% 16-62 (78)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 62.3¢	$585.18	$503.79	-$81.39	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 62.3¢	$301.4	$384.52	+$83.13
└ No leg	Noavg 48.8¢	$283.78	$119.27	-$164.51
RA rabbitfoot1	Yesavg 50.9¢	$190	$212.65	+$22.65	4% 15-385 (400)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Noavg 40.2¢	$193.87	$185.57	-$8.31	37% 1063-1796 (2859)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53.1¢	$77.64	$106.02	+$28.38
└ No leg	Noavg 40.2¢	$116.23	$79.55	-$36.69
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$49.5	$43.33	+$0.33	46% 2743-3256 (5999)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 47.3¢	$27.35	$24.29	-$3.06	42% 1030-1415 (2445)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$15.63	$13.4	-$2.23	49% 1169-1236 (2405)
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$2	$2.1	+$0.1	52% 24-22 (46)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$449.26

Value

$693.01

PnL

+$243.75

Record

36%

975-1701 (2676)

DanielsDixon

Yes

Invested

$530

Value

$580

PnL

+$50

Record

21%

16-62 (78)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$585.18

Value

$503.79

PnL

-$81.39

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

Both legs:

Yes$301.462.3¢+$83.13

No$283.7848.8¢-$164.51

rabbitfoot1

Yes

Invested

$190

Value

$212.65

PnL

+$22.65

Record

15-385 (400)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Invested

$193.87

Value

$185.57

PnL

-$8.31

Record

37%

1063-1796 (2859)

Both legs:

Yes$77.6453.1¢+$28.38

No$116.2340.2¢-$36.69

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.5

Value

$43.33

PnL

+$0.33

Record

46%

2743-3256 (5999)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$27.35

Value

$24.29

PnL

-$3.06

Record

42%

1030-1415 (2445)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$15.63

Value

$13.4

PnL

-$2.23

Record

49%

1169-1236 (2405)

BlackMamba08CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

24-22 (46)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.