Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (61%). 11 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Panama win on 2026-11-15?

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 40¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Yes61¢No39¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 79%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$107.03

Smart Money Entry

36.2¢ → 39.5¢

+9% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes61%

No40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares5,468

Combined PnL+$169.42

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,167

Combined PnL-$62.39

No — 79%Yes — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 36.6¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$116.98	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
GL glennyorkshire	Yesavg 64.2¢	$958.35	$910.45	-$47.9	47% 241-270 (511)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 36.6¢	$446.89	$482.23	+$35.33	52% 2600-2381 (4981)
rayvanmechelen	Yesavg 64.7¢	$428.71	$414.39	-$14.32	18% 67-305 (372)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Noavg 33.2¢	$160.42	$173.8	+$13.38	25% 69-210 (279)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$80.5	$72	+$3.26	54% 2045-1764 (3809)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$57.36	$60.17	+$2.81	43% 589-793 (1382)
└ No leg	Noavg 37.1¢	$27.86	$30.42	+$2.56
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 59¢	$29.5	$29.75	+$0.25
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$56.37	$56.4	+$0.03	35% 674-1228 (1902)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$37.8	$37.8	+$0	56% 703-544 (1247)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$38.18	$37.15	-$1.03	41% 1228-1765 (2993)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$23.33	$23.67	+$0.33	48% 738-786 (1524)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 38.3¢	$21.59	$22.27	+$0.68	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 35.1¢	$20.31	$20.81	+$0.5	36% 525-952 (1477)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$7.14	$6.98	-$0.17	46% 3434-3964 (7398)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$4.25	$4.2	-$0.05	38% 1433-2333 (3766)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$1,138.9

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$116.98

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

glennyorkshire

Yes

Invested

$958.35

Value

$910.45

PnL

-$47.9

Record

47%

241-270 (511)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$446.89

Value

$482.23

PnL

+$35.33

Record

52%

2600-2381 (4981)

rayvanmechelen

Yes

Invested

$428.71

Value

$414.39

PnL

-$14.32

Record

18%

67-305 (372)

NotradecopyCTR

Invested

$160.42

Value

$173.8

PnL

+$13.38

Record

25%

69-210 (279)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$80.5

Value

$72

PnL

+$3.26

Record

54%

2045-1764 (3809)

GC-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.36

Value

$60.17

PnL

+$2.81

Record

43%

589-793 (1382)

Both legs:

No$27.8637.1¢+$2.56

Yes$29.559¢+$0.25

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$56.37

Value

$56.4

PnL

+$0.03

Record

35%

674-1228 (1902)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$37.8

Value

$37.8

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

703-544 (1247)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$38.18

Value

$37.15

PnL

-$1.03

Record

41%

1228-1765 (2993)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Invested

$23.33

Value

$23.67

PnL

+$0.33

Record

48%

738-786 (1524)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$21.59

Value

$22.27

PnL

+$0.68

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$20.31

Value

$20.81

PnL

+$0.5

Record

36%

525-952 (1477)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.14

Value

$6.98

PnL

-$0.17

Record

46%

3434-3964 (7398)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$4.25

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

1433-2333 (3766)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 40%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.