Will Curaçao win on 2026-11-15?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 88¢ · $471 held · ends Nov 15

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$470.93

Combined PnL

$19.56

Smart Money Entry

85.7¢ → 87.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$381.12

Total Shares438

Combined PnL-$5.42

Yes3 traders

Total Value$89.81

Total Shares691

Combined PnL+$24.98

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Noavg 87¢	$108.99	$108.99	+$0	38% 1316-2144 (3460)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 87¢	$87	$87	+$0	38% 1314-2159 (3473)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 85.4¢	$73.47	$74.82	+$1.35	56% 636-504 (1140)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.5¢	$51.64	$58.62	+$6.98	49% 4576-4835 (9411)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Noavg 81¢	$40.5	$43.5	+$3	46% 39-45 (84)
GU guilttrip<$100	Noavg 85¢	$90.1	$40.02	-$10.08	47% 27-30 (57)
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$11.15	$28.98	+$17.83	50% 25-25 (50)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 86¢	$26.48	$26.79	+$0.31	35% 612-1118 (1730)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$2.04	$2.21	+$0.17	48% 2479-2702 (5181)

MadridTime

Invested

$108.99

Value

$108.99

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1316-2144 (3460)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$87

Value

$87

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1314-2159 (3473)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$73.47

Value

$74.82

PnL

+$1.35

Record

56%

636-504 (1140)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.64

Value

$58.62

PnL

+$6.98

Record

49%

4576-4835 (9411)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

Invested

$40.5

Value

$43.5

PnL

+$3

Record

46%

39-45 (84)

guilttrip<$100

Invested

$90.1

Value

$40.02

PnL

-$10.08

Record

47%

27-30 (57)

BlackMamba08CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.15

Value

$28.98

PnL

+$17.83

Record

50%

25-25 (50)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$26.48

Value

$26.79

PnL

+$0.31

Record

35%

612-1118 (1730)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.04

Value

$2.21

PnL

+$0.17

Record

48%

2479-2702 (5181)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.