Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will Montserrat win on 2026-11-13?
Resolved No. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
28
No 73%
1 arb excluded
$29.6K
$1.5K
Smart Money Signal
21 of 28 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin | Noavg 89.3¢ | $8.0K | $9.0K | +$959.55 | 36% 883-1569 (2452) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 90.2¢ | $6.7K | $7.4K | +$724.47 | 36% 911-1587 (2498) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 82.6¢ | $5.1K | $3.9K | $-1.2K | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 89¢ | $2.7K | $3.1K | +$339.47 | 36% 893-1601 (2494) |
 RN1 | Noavg 72¢ | $1.2K | $1.6K | +$460.2 | 56% 5073-4021 (9094) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 89.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$135.04 | 37% 926-1560 (2486) |
CA CandleHammerDrums | Noavg 72.5¢ | $582.57 | $798 | +$215.43 | 48% 465-495 (960) |
 Secondhandvinyl | Noavg 94.6¢ | $749.9 | $792.85 | +$42.96 | 74% 207-71 (278) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 88.3¢ | $777.41 | $655.42 | -$121.99 | 54% 2013-1746 (3759) |
SU suitcase6628 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $434.59 | $339.54 | -$4.59 | 64% 535-298 (833) |
PO poposub | Noavg 73.3¢ | $142.68 | $194.66 | +$51.98 | — 8-7 (15) |
 poshposh | Noavg 83.5¢ | $175.97 | $193.61 | +$17.64 | 48% 1014-1101 (2115) |
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Yesavg 11.3¢ | $681.71 | $48.91 | -$632.8 | 37% 841-1416 (2257) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 11.3¢ | $642.72 | — | -$642.72 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 79.7¢ | $38.99 | $48.91 | +$9.92 | |
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100 | Noavg 87.4¢ | $84.18 | $96.32 | +$12.14 | 12% 43-330 (373) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $75.61 | $84.95 | +$9.34 | 39% 3600-5658 (9258) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 90.1¢ | $39.62 | $44 | +$4.38 | 35% 424-772 (1196) |
 dips.<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $30.72 | $26 | -$4.72 | 47% 877-973 (1850) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $16.28 | $22 | +$5.72 | 45% 712-885 (1597) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.3¢ | $42.66 | — | -$42.66 | 43% 920-1244 (2164) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Noavg 80.9¢ | $10 | $12.36 | +$2.36 | 39% 406-629 (1035) |
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $3.5 | $5 | +$1.5 | 44% 343-445 (788) |
SU suntoriCTR | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $607.4 | — | +$27.5 | 46% 2359-2814 (5173) |
SM smithagentCTR | Yesavg 10.9¢ | $221.42 | — | -$35.42 | 44% 600-749 (1349) |
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.5¢ | $47.43 | — | -$32.43 | 34% 347-673 (1020) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.5¢ | $21.15 | — | -$4.65 | 49% 1883-1987 (3870) |
Invested
$8,018.83
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$959.55
Record
36%
883-1569 (2452)
Invested
$6,680.98
Value
$7.4K
PnL
+$724.47
Record
36%
911-1587 (2498)
Invested
$5,126.41
Value
$3.9K
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
Invested
$2,738.52
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$339.47
Record
36%
893-1601 (2494)
RN1Invested
$1,185.45
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$460.2
Record
56%
5073-4021 (9094)
Invested
$1,161.75
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$135.04
Record
37%
926-1560 (2486)
Invested
$582.57
Value
$798
PnL
+$215.43
Record
48%
465-495 (960)
SecondhandvinylInvested
$749.9
Value
$792.85
PnL
+$42.96
Record
74%
207-71 (278)
Invested
$777.41
Value
$655.42
PnL
-$121.99
Record
54%
2013-1746 (3759)
Invested
$434.59
Value
$339.54
PnL
-$4.59
Record
64%
535-298 (833)
Invested
$142.68
Value
$194.66
PnL
+$51.98
Record
—
8-7 (15)
poshposhInvested
$175.97
Value
$193.61
PnL
+$17.64
Record
48%
1014-1101 (2115)
Invested
$681.71
Value
$48.91
PnL
-$632.8
Record
37%
841-1416 (2257)
Both legs:
Invested
$84.18
Value
$96.32
PnL
+$12.14
Record
12%
43-330 (373)
Invested
$75.61
Value
$84.95
PnL
+$9.34
Record
39%
3600-5658 (9258)
Invested
$39.62
Value
$44
PnL
+$4.38
Record
35%
424-772 (1196)
dips.<$100Invested
$30.72
Value
$26
PnL
-$4.72
Record
47%
877-973 (1850)
Invested
$16.28
Value
$22
PnL
+$5.72
Record
45%
712-885 (1597)
Invested
$42.66
Value
—
PnL
-$42.66
Record
43%
920-1244 (2164)
Invested
$10
Value
$12.36
PnL
+$2.36
Record
39%
406-629 (1035)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.5
Record
44%
343-445 (788)
Invested
$607.4
Value
—
PnL
+$27.5
Record
46%
2359-2814 (5173)
Invested
$221.42
Value
—
PnL
-$35.42
Record
44%
600-749 (1349)
Invested
$47.43
Value
—
PnL
-$32.43
Record
34%
347-673 (1020)
Invested
$21.15
Value
—
PnL
-$4.65
Record
49%
1883-1987 (3870)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Limousin
No — $9.0K
LightParadox
No — $7.4K
Flaznorp
No — $3.9K
Venusian
No — $3.1K
RN1
No — $1.6K
MadridTime
No — $1.3K
CandleHammerDrums
No — $798
Secondhandvinyl
No — $792.85
GoalLineGhost
No — $655.42
suitcase6628
No — $339.54