Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Over — but Under won instead.
Saint-Martin vs. El Salvador: O/U 2.5
Resolved Under. 30% of the top Polymarket traders held Over. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
20
Over 33%
1 arb excluded
$2.8K
$-1.4K
Smart Money Signal
6 of 20 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 56.8¢ | $589.51 | $908.94 | +$319.43 | 50% 3526-3585 (7111) |
JA JabJabichCTR | Overavg 57¢ | $1.7K | — | $-1.7K | 28% 23-60 (83) |
LI LightParadox | Underavg 37.2¢ | $168.97 | $418.07 | +$249.1 | 36% 910-1584 (2494) |
VE Venusian | Underavg 39.6¢ | $173.98 | $416.29 | +$242.32 | 36% 890-1596 (2486) |
 dips. | Underavg 86.2¢ | $299.19 | $347.02 | +$47.83 | 47% 860-963 (1823) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 61.6¢ | $478.48 | — | -$478.48 | 54% 2013-1746 (3759) |
SE sentrio | Underavg 57¢ | $105.41 | $184.93 | +$79.52 | 43% 915-1235 (2150) |
SM smithagent | Underavg 89¢ | $145.89 | $163.98 | +$18.09 | 44% 599-749 (1348) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Overavg 63¢ | $101.72 | $102 | +$0.28 | 56% 426-340 (766) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 38¢ | $38.76 | $102 | +$63.24 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 63¢ | $62.96 | — | -$62.96 | |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Overavg 42¢ | $141.58 | — | -$141.58 | 48% 852-928 (1780) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Underavg 76.2¢ | $72.46 | $95.07 | +$22.61 | 37% 497-832 (1329) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Overavg 43¢ | $102.58 | — | -$102.58 | 37% 819-1385 (2204) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Underavg 37.6¢ | $19.09 | $50.71 | +$31.62 | 37% 924-1557 (2481) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Underavg 37.5¢ | $18.53 | $49.48 | +$30.95 | 36% 879-1566 (2445) |
CC ccllar<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $15.04 | $32 | +$16.96 | 42% 48-67 (115) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $17.67 | $22.23 | +$9.56 | 49% 1865-1975 (3840) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 46.5¢ | $27.29 | — | -$27.29 | 48% 1014-1100 (2114) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Overavg 44.8¢ | $7.17 | — | -$7.17 | 45% 706-873 (1579) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 37¢ | $1.15 | $3.11 | +$1.96 | 35% 424-772 (1196) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Underavg 81¢ | $14.71 | $0.01 | +$3.43 | 82% 643-144 (787) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $83 | — | +$0 | 73% 119-43 (162) |
Invested
$589.51
Value
$908.94
PnL
+$319.43
Record
50%
3526-3585 (7111)
Invested
$1,710
Value
—
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
28%
23-60 (83)
Invested
$168.97
Value
$418.07
PnL
+$249.1
Record
36%
910-1584 (2494)
Invested
$173.98
Value
$416.29
PnL
+$242.32
Record
36%
890-1596 (2486)
dips.Invested
$299.19
Value
$347.02
PnL
+$47.83
Record
47%
860-963 (1823)
Invested
$478.48
Value
—
PnL
-$478.48
Record
54%
2013-1746 (3759)
Invested
$105.41
Value
$184.93
PnL
+$79.52
Record
43%
915-1235 (2150)
Invested
$145.89
Value
$163.98
PnL
+$18.09
Record
44%
599-749 (1348)
Invested
$101.72
Value
$102
PnL
+$0.28
Record
56%
426-340 (766)
Both legs:
Invested
$141.58
Value
—
PnL
-$141.58
Record
48%
852-928 (1780)
Invested
$72.46
Value
$95.07
PnL
+$22.61
Record
37%
497-832 (1329)
Invested
$102.58
Value
—
PnL
-$102.58
Record
37%
819-1385 (2204)
Invested
$19.09
Value
$50.71
PnL
+$31.62
Record
37%
924-1557 (2481)
Invested
$18.53
Value
$49.48
PnL
+$30.95
Record
36%
879-1566 (2445)
Invested
$15.04
Value
$32
PnL
+$16.96
Record
42%
48-67 (115)
Invested
$17.67
Value
$22.23
PnL
+$9.56
Record
49%
1865-1975 (3840)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$27.29
Value
—
PnL
-$27.29
Record
48%
1014-1100 (2114)
Invested
$7.17
Value
—
PnL
-$7.17
Record
45%
706-873 (1579)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$3.11
PnL
+$1.96
Record
35%
424-772 (1196)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$14.71
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$3.43
Record
82%
643-144 (787)
Invested
$83
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
73%
119-43 (162)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Flaznorp
Under — $908.94
JabJabich
CTROver — $0
LightParadox
Under — $418.07
Venusian
Under — $416.29
dips.
Under — $347.02
GoalLineGhost
CTROver — $0
sentrio
Under — $184.93
smithagent
Under — $163.98
LeLynxMalynx
ARBArbitrage — excluded
SnakeBall
CTROver — $0