Will El Salvador win on 2026-11-13?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (36%) · Yes at 69¢ · $865 held · ends Nov 13

Yes69¢No31¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 36%

Total Value

$865.2

Combined PnL

$9.23

Smart Money Entry

69.5¢ → 68.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes69%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$670.76

Total Shares926

Combined PnL-$6.06

No7 traders

Total Value$194.43

Total Shares617

Combined PnL+$15.29

Yes — 36%No — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 69.6¢	$620.12	$614.31	-$5.81	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$66.69	$65.67	-$1.02	34% 735-1404 (2139)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 30.9¢	$57.59	$58.73	+$1.14	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
GU guilttripCTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$37.58	$44.39	+$13.24	57% 13-10 (23)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$31.96	$32.2	+$0.23	56% 307-245 (552)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Yesavg 70.1¢	$16.46	$15.97	-$0.49	50% 118-117 (235)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 30.8¢	$14.83	$15.17	+$0.34	43% 808-1065 (1873)
tradecraft<$100	Yesavg 68.5¢	$8.28	$8.28	-$0	26% 250-703 (953)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$5.27	$5.36	+$0.09	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$2.05	$3.23	+$1.18	46% 781-902 (1683)
SilentSharkCTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$1.56	$1.89	+$0.33	—

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$620.12

Value

$614.31

PnL

-$5.81

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$66.69

Value

$65.67

PnL

-$1.02

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$57.59

Value

$58.73

PnL

+$1.14

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

guilttripCTR<$100

Invested

$37.58

Value

$44.39

PnL

+$13.24

Record

57%

13-10 (23)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.96

Value

$32.2

PnL

+$0.23

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.46

Value

$15.97

PnL

-$0.49

Record

50%

118-117 (235)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$14.83

Value

$15.17

PnL

+$0.34

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

tradecraft<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.28

Value

$8.28

PnL

-$0

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$5.27

Value

$5.36

PnL

+$0.09

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$2.05

Value

$3.23

PnL

+$1.18

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

SilentSharkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.56

Value

$1.89

PnL

+$0.33

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.