Jamaica vs. Mexico: O/U 4.5

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (47%) · Over at 100¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 47%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.4K

Combined PnL

-$76.84

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 100¢

+104% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 15 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,536

Combined PnL+$131.97

Under8 traders

Total Value$149.51

Total Shares781

Combined PnL-$208.81

Over — 47%Under — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 46.1¢	$3.2K	$5.3K	+$2.1K	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
└ Over leg	Overavg 14.9¢	$790.6	$3.1K	+$2.3K
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.1¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$215.75
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 78.8¢	$5.5K	$4.1K	$-1.4K	53% 2358-2131 (4489)
└ Under leg	Underavg 78.8¢	$3.4K	$2.1K	$-1.4K
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.4¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$36.19
UE uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9ARB<$100	Overavg 56¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$68.66	61% 63-41 (104)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$188.82
└ Under leg	Underavg 42¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$120.16
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Overavg 99¢	$566.87	$569.74	+$2.86	85% 85-15 (100)
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609	Overavg 80¢	$332.96	$330.88	-$2.08	80% 43-11 (54)
WA WagerWizard	Overavg 32.6¢	$51.57	$158.02	+$106.45	48% 200-218 (418)
LR lryyy	Overavg 76.1¢	$193.15	$143.7	-$49.45	46% 877-1050 (1927)
MO mouzsynapse	Overavg 6¢	$66.15	$137.81	+$71.66	40% 139-208 (347)
dips.<$100	Overavg 79.6¢	$96.2	$96.05	-$0.15	48% 1115-1227 (2342)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 42.7¢	$65.59	$65.32	-$0.27	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$73.55	$39.96	-$33.59	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
SecondhandvinylCTR<$100	Underavg 76¢	$28.88	$28.5	-$0.38	76% 323-103 (426)
SM smithagent<$100	Overavg 79.9¢	$15.25	$17.94	+$2.69	46% 775-926 (1701)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 41.5¢	$15.42	$15.52	+$0.1	35% 565-1034 (1599)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 43¢	$149.86	$0.17	-$149.69	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Underavg 24.2¢	$10	$0.02	-$9.98	41% 499-713 (1212)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$9.52	$0.01	-$9.51	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$5.5	$0.01	-$5.49	48% 2325-2529 (4854)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,212.36

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

Both legs:

Over$790.614.9¢+$2.3K

Under$2,421.7646.1¢-$215.75

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$5,488.27

Value

$4.1K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

53%

2358-2131 (4489)

Both legs:

Under$3,424.0978.8¢$-1.4K

Over$2,064.1853.4¢-$36.19

uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,364.41

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$68.66

Record

61%

63-41 (104)

Both legs:

Over$1,922.5156¢+$188.82

Under$1,441.8942¢-$120.16

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Over

Invested

$566.87

Value

$569.74

PnL

+$2.86

Record

85%

85-15 (100)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609

Over

Invested

$332.96

Value

$330.88

PnL

-$2.08

Record

80%

43-11 (54)

WagerWizard

Over

Invested

$51.57

Value

$158.02

PnL

+$106.45

Record

48%

200-218 (418)

lryyy

Over

Invested

$193.15

Value

$143.7

PnL

-$49.45

Record

46%

877-1050 (1927)

mouzsynapse

Over

Invested

$66.15

Value

$137.81

PnL

+$71.66

Record

40%

139-208 (347)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$96.2

Value

$96.05

PnL

-$0.15

Record

48%

1115-1227 (2342)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$65.59

Value

$65.32

PnL

-$0.27

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$73.55

Value

$39.96

PnL

-$33.59

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

SecondhandvinylCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$28.88

Value

$28.5

PnL

-$0.38

Record

76%

323-103 (426)

smithagent<$100

Over

Invested

$15.25

Value

$17.94

PnL

+$2.69

Record

46%

775-926 (1701)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.42

Value

$15.52

PnL

+$0.1

Record

35%

565-1034 (1599)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$149.86

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$149.69

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$9.98

Record

41%

499-713 (1212)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.52

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$9.51

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.5

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$5.49

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 15 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.