Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Jamaica vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$36.34

Smart Money Entry

37.5¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$755.16

Total Shares770

Combined PnL+$33.88

Under9 traders

Total Value$876.38

Total Shares2,331

Combined PnL+$2.46

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 56¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$3.08	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$943.39	$1.1K	+$109.75
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.8¢	$388.66	$275.83	-$112.84
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 64.2¢	$853.53	$771.77	-$81.76	53% 2358-2131 (4489)
└ Over leg	Overavg 25.6¢	$173.23	$506.66	+$333.43
└ Under leg	Underavg 64.2¢	$680.3	$265.11	-$415.19
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Overavg 99¢	$622.66	$625.81	+$3.14	99% 566-7 (573)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 38.2¢	$314.56	$333.16	+$18.6	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 41.4¢	$247.96	$242.53	-$5.43	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 38.6¢	$137.75	$137.51	-$0.25	35% 565-1034 (1599)
WA WagerWizard	Overavg 75.3¢	$91.43	$121.39	+$29.96	48% 200-218 (418)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 38¢	$118.36	$110.57	-$7.79	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 40.3¢	$25.19	$25.31	+$0.12	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$12.47	$15.59	+$3.12	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 49.7¢	$16.39	$10.89	-$5.5	46% 877-1050 (1927)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 38.5¢	$14.5	$7.97	+$0.78	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$1.03	$0.52	-$0.52	48% 1115-1227 (2342)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$0.2	$0.31	+$0.1	46% 775-926 (1701)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,332.05

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$3.08

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

Both legs:

Over$943.3956¢+$109.75

Under$388.6652.8¢-$112.84

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$853.53

Value

$771.77

PnL

-$81.76

Record

53%

2358-2131 (4489)

Both legs:

Over$173.2325.6¢+$333.43

Under$680.364.2¢-$415.19

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Over

Invested

$622.66

Value

$625.81

PnL

+$3.14

Record

99%

566-7 (573)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$314.56

Value

$333.16

PnL

+$18.6

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$247.96

Value

$242.53

PnL

-$5.43

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$137.75

Value

$137.51

PnL

-$0.25

Record

35%

565-1034 (1599)

WagerWizard

Over

Invested

$91.43

Value

$121.39

PnL

+$29.96

Record

48%

200-218 (418)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$118.36

Value

$110.57

PnL

-$7.79

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25.19

Value

$25.31

PnL

+$0.12

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.47

Value

$15.59

PnL

+$3.12

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.39

Value

$10.89

PnL

-$5.5

Record

46%

877-1050 (1927)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$14.5

Value

$7.97

PnL

+$0.78

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.03

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$0.52

Record

48%

1115-1227 (2342)

smithagentCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.31

PnL

+$0.1

Record

46%

775-926 (1701)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.