Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Mexico, while the market favors Jamaica (89%). 3 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Mexico (-1.5)

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Mexico (27%) · Mexico at 12¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Mexico12¢Jamaica88¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mexico

Consensus Traders

Mexico 27%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$912.67

Smart Money Entry

42.1¢ → 11.5¢

-73% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidMexico at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mexico

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Jamaica 89%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mexico12%

Jamaica89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jamaica8 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,040

Combined PnL+$352.75

Mexico3 traders

Total Value$566.87

Total Shares4,353

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Jamaica — 73%Mexico — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Mexico. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJamaica 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedJamaica 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jamaica 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Jamaicaavg 60.9¢	$861.52	$906.63	+$67.05	53% 2358-2131 (4489)
FL Flaznorp	Jamaicaavg 82.1¢	$615.43	$560.71	-$54.72	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Mexicoavg 42.1¢	$1.8K	$559.74	$-1.3K	48% 670-715 (1385)
RN1	Jamaicaavg 50¢	$297.2	$463.62	+$166.43	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
LI LightParadox	Jamaicaavg 50¢	$130	$202.8	+$72.8	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
BI biying99999	Jamaicaavg 54¢	$122.09	$176.35	+$54.26	37% 129-216 (345)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Jamaicaavg 53.3¢	$92.79	$135.71	+$42.93	56% 598-472 (1070)
dips.	Jamaicaavg 85.5¢	$113.96	$117.97	+$4.01	48% 1115-1227 (2342)
US User7429<$100	Jamaicaavg 78¢	$52.65	$52.65	-$0	42% 374-523 (897)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Mexicoavg 50¢	$18.09	$4.7	-$13.39	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Mexicoavg 17¢	$1.87	$2.42	+$0.55	46% 877-1050 (1927)

GoalLineGhost

Jamaica

Invested

$861.52

Value

$906.63

PnL

+$67.05

Record

53%

2358-2131 (4489)

Flaznorp

Jamaica

Invested

$615.43

Value

$560.71

PnL

-$54.72

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Mexico

Invested

$1,812.33

Value

$559.74

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

48%

670-715 (1385)

RN1

Jamaica

Invested

$297.2

Value

$463.62

PnL

+$166.43

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

LightParadox

Jamaica

Invested

$130

Value

$202.8

PnL

+$72.8

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

biying99999

Jamaica

Invested

$122.09

Value

$176.35

PnL

+$54.26

Record

37%

129-216 (345)

LeLynxMalynx

Jamaica

Invested

$92.79

Value

$135.71

PnL

+$42.93

Record

56%

598-472 (1070)

dips.

Jamaica

Invested

$113.96

Value

$117.97

PnL

+$4.01

Record

48%

1115-1227 (2342)

User7429<$100

Jamaica

Invested

$52.65

Value

$52.65

PnL

-$0

Record

42%

374-523 (897)

suntoriCTR<$100

Mexico

Invested

$18.09

Value

$4.7

PnL

-$13.39

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

lryyyCTR<$100

Mexico

Invested

$1.87

Value

$2.42

PnL

+$0.55

Record

46%

877-1050 (1927)

Research grade

AvoidMexico at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Mexico

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Jamaica 89%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Mexico. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJamaica 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedJamaica 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jamaica 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mexico wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.0%

11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$666.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

766.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.