Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 10 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Jamaica vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$236.37

Smart Money Entry

34.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,364

Combined PnL+$816.92

No10 traders

Total Value$296.81

Total Shares3,867

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 55.1¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$182.96	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55.1¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$44.72
└ No leg	Noavg 55.3¢	$986.02	$758.34	-$227.68
VE Venusian	Yesavg 37¢	$500.23	$1.3K	+$812.78	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
RN1CTR	Noavg 20¢	$248.71	$248.71	+$0	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 60¢	$122.57	$40.87	-$81.7	54% 1641-1409 (3050)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Yesavg 99¢	$23.76	$23.88	+$0.12	99% 566-7 (573)
LR lryyy<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$18.69	$20.31	+$1.62	46% 877-1050 (1927)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$2.4	$4.8	+$2.4	48% 200-218 (418)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$2.16	$2.24	+$0.08	35% 565-1034 (1599)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$1.75	$1.75	+$0	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 41.6¢	$940.29	$1.13	-$939.16	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$1.35	$1	-$0.35	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$1.61	$0.53	-$1.08	56% 598-472 (1070)
dips.CTR<$100	Noavg 1¢	$0.6	$0.3	-$0.3	48% 1115-1227 (2342)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$0.23	$0.25	+$0.01	47% 1065-1216 (2281)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 39.9¢	$30.84	$0.04	-$30.8	37% 1176-1966 (3142)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,009.67

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$182.96

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

Both legs:

Yes$1,023.6655.1¢+$44.72

No$986.0255.3¢-$227.68

Venusian

Yes

Invested

$500.23

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$812.78

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

RN1CTR

Invested

$248.71

Value

$248.71

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$122.57

Value

$40.87

PnL

-$81.7

Record

54%

1641-1409 (3050)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.76

Value

$23.88

PnL

+$0.12

Record

99%

566-7 (573)

lryyy<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.69

Value

$20.31

PnL

+$1.62

Record

46%

877-1050 (1927)

WagerWizard<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$2.4

Record

48%

200-218 (418)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$2.16

Value

$2.24

PnL

+$0.08

Record

35%

565-1034 (1599)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$940.29

Value

$1.13

PnL

-$939.16

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$1.35

Value

PnL

-$0.35

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$1.61

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$1.08

Record

56%

598-472 (1070)

dips.CTR<$100

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$0.3

Record

48%

1115-1227 (2342)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.25

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

1065-1216 (2281)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$30.84

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$30.8

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.