Haiti vs. United States: O/U 3.5

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (89%) · Over at 60¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 14

Over60¢Under40¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 89%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.6K

Combined PnL

$3.8K

Smart Money Entry

41.1¢ → 59.5¢

+45% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 9 top traders (89%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over60%

Under41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$16.1K

Total Shares29,519

Combined PnL+$3.8K

Under1 trader

Total Value$414.56

Total Shares846

Combined PnL-$25.38

Over — 89%Under — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (11 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Overavg 41¢	$8.4K	$11.3K	+$2.8K	48% 636-676 (1312)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 41¢	$2.0K	$2.6K	+$613.94	49% 4068-4262 (8330)
CUTJALENHURTS	Overavg 41¢	$646.36	$756.72	+$110.35	52% 2647-2473 (5120)
VE Venusian	Overavg 41.2¢	$600.92	$736.72	+$135.8	37% 1035-1784 (2819)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 41¢	$631.24	$703.48	+$72.24	53% 2221-2002 (4223)
└ Over leg	Overavg 41¢	$373	$459.43	+$86.43
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.4¢	$258.24	$244.05	-$14.19
BA BayupatiCTR	Underavg 52¢	$439.95	$414.56	-$25.38	18% 32-147 (179)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 41¢	$260.53	$305.02	+$44.48	36% 510-915 (1425)
LI Limousin	Overavg 48¢	$263.35	$279.9	+$16.55	37% 1030-1762 (2792)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$216.08	$223.31	+$7.23	59% 3799-2617 (6416)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$120	$126.25	+$6.25
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$96.08	$97.06	+$0.98
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$185.51	$201.12	+$15.61	38% 395-632 (1027)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$138.66	$153.24	+$14.59
└ Under leg	Underavg 46¢	$46.85	$47.87	+$1.02
FE ferdinand2	Overavg 41¢	$88.56	$103.68	+$15.12	48% 2212-2378 (4590)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 43¢	$19.04	$23.47	+$4.43	46% 2814-3341 (6155)

Multicoloured-Serf

Over

Invested

$8,417.95

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

48%

636-676 (1312)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$1,987.23

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$613.94

Record

49%

4068-4262 (8330)

CUTJALENHURTS

Over

Invested

$646.36

Value

$756.72

PnL

+$110.35

Record

52%

2647-2473 (5120)

Venusian

Over

Invested

$600.92

Value

$736.72

PnL

+$135.8

Record

37%

1035-1784 (2819)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$631.24

Value

$703.48

PnL

+$72.24

Record

53%

2221-2002 (4223)

Both legs:

Over$37341¢+$86.43

Under$258.2452.4¢-$14.19

BayupatiCTR

Under

Invested

$439.95

Value

$414.56

PnL

-$25.38

Record

18%

32-147 (179)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$260.53

Value

$305.02

PnL

+$44.48

Record

36%

510-915 (1425)

Limousin

Over

Invested

$263.35

Value

$279.9

PnL

+$16.55

Record

37%

1030-1762 (2792)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$216.08

Value

$223.31

PnL

+$7.23

Record

59%

3799-2617 (6416)

Both legs:

Invested

$185.51

Value

$201.12

PnL

+$15.61

Record

38%

395-632 (1027)

Both legs:

Over$138.6648¢+$14.59

Under$46.8546¢+$1.02

ferdinand2

Over

Invested

$88.56

Value

$103.68

PnL

+$15.12

Record

48%

2212-2378 (4590)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$19.04

Value

$23.47

PnL

+$4.43

Record

46%

2814-3341 (6155)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 9 top traders (89%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (11 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.