Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Haiti vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 1.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 0.1¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

47.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,666

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Over9 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,609

Combined PnL+$601.54

Under — 25%Over — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Underavg 53.4¢	$1.3K	$2.4K	+$1.1K	39% 587-913 (1500)
JA JabJabichCTR	Overavg 46¢	$1.1K	$1.8K	+$625	34% 35-69 (104)
dips.CTR	Overavg 55.1¢	$160.68	$197.46	+$36.77	47% 1028-1153 (2181)
alpheclabs2CTR	Overavg 43.1¢	$381.11	$187.59	-$66.69	46% 311-372 (683)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 52.2¢	$88.35	$91.41	+$3.07	54% 1497-1295 (2792)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Overavg 65.2¢	$50	$88.63	+$44.76	41% 467-682 (1149)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Underavg 99¢	$57.76	$58.05	+$0.29	99% 513-7 (520)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 58¢	$29	$35.5	+$6.5	53% 7196-6292 (13488)
nacaradogolCTR	Overavg 74¢	$473.26	$28.56	-$49.82	35% 12-22 (34)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 76.7¢	$30.66	$28.4	-$2.26	45% 707-867 (1574)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$11.79	$19.02	+$7.23	49% 4087-4288 (8375)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 70.8¢	$18.26	$18.31	+$0.05	41% 345-505 (850)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Under

Invested

$1,302.12

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

39%

587-913 (1500)

JabJabichCTR

Over

Invested

$1,149.99

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$625

Record

34%

35-69 (104)

dips.CTR

Over

Invested

$160.68

Value

$197.46

PnL

+$36.77

Record

47%

1028-1153 (2181)

alpheclabs2CTR

Over

Invested

$381.11

Value

$187.59

PnL

-$66.69

Record

46%

311-372 (683)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$88.35

Value

$91.41

PnL

+$3.07

Record

54%

1497-1295 (2792)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$50

Value

$88.63

PnL

+$44.76

Record

41%

467-682 (1149)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Under

Invested

$57.76

Value

$58.05

PnL

+$0.29

Record

99%

513-7 (520)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29

Value

$35.5

PnL

+$6.5

Record

53%

7196-6292 (13488)

nacaradogolCTR

Over

Invested

$473.26

Value

$28.56

PnL

-$49.82

Record

35%

12-22 (34)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30.66

Value

$28.4

PnL

-$2.26

Record

45%

707-867 (1574)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.79

Value

$19.02

PnL

+$7.23

Record

49%

4087-4288 (8375)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.26

Value

$18.31

PnL

+$0.05

Record

41%

345-505 (850)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.