Spread: Canada (-1.5)

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Canada (54%) · Canada at 83¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 14

Canada83¢Guatemala17¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Canada

Consensus Traders

Canada 54%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

-$898.44

Smart Money Entry

78.5¢ → 83¢

+6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralCanada at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Canada

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Canada83%

Guatemala17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Canada7 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares7,540

Combined PnL-$764.31

Guatemala6 traders

Total Value$71.61

Total Shares394

Combined PnL-$134.13

Canada — 54%Guatemala — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Canada. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Guatemala) and the top 1000 (11 on Canada) disagree here.

ctrCanada 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedGuatemala 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Canada 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Canadaavg 87.7¢	$4.0K	$2.7K	$-1.3K	54% 2013-1746 (3759)
KM kmak1	Canadaavg 96¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	-$243.49	— 3-8 (11)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Canadaavg 54.2¢	$1.3K	$2.2K	+$853.14	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
└ Canada leg	Canadaavg 54.2¢	$882.87	$1.4K	+$523.08
└ Guatemala leg	Guatemalaavg 7.8¢	$431.92	$761.98	+$330.06
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Canadaavg 42¢	$740.21	$1.4K	+$704.96	49% 615-642 (1257)
dips.	Canadaavg 80.1¢	$303.2	$324.83	+$21.63	47% 860-963 (1823)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Canadaavg 39.2¢	$90.21	$162.21	+$72	43% 915-1235 (2150)
└ Canada leg	Canadaavg 39.2¢	$53.15	$128.24	+$75.09
└ Guatemala leg	Guatemalaavg 6¢	$37.06	$33.97	-$3.09
LI Limousin<$100	Canadaavg 40¢	$46.84	$96.02	+$49.18	36% 879-1566 (2445)
RO Rocko33<$100	Canadaavg 71.1¢	$42.65	$49.22	+$6.57	62% 104-63 (167)
VeryLucky888CTR	Guatemalaavg 55¢	$110	$36	-$74	53% 1179-1029 (2208)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Canadaavg 43¢	$9.92	$22.22	+$12.3	49% 1865-1975 (3840)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR<$100	Guatemalaavg 55¢	$58.75	$19.23	-$39.52	59% 491-339 (830)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Guatemalaavg 57¢	$26.51	$8.37	-$18.14	56% 426-340 (766)
poshposhCTR<$100	Guatemalaavg 29.6¢	$6.45	$3.92	-$2.52	48% 1014-1100 (2114)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Guatemalaavg 22¢	$3.04	$3.87	+$0.83	39% 406-629 (1035)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Guatemalaavg 18¢	$1	$0.22	-$0.78	30% 95-225 (320)

GoalLineGhost

Canada

Invested

$3,984.59

Value

$2.7K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

54%

2013-1746 (3759)

kmak1

Canada

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$243.49

Record

—

3-8 (11)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Canada

Invested

$1,314.79

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$853.14

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

Both legs:

Canada$882.8754.2¢+$523.08

Guatemala$431.927.8¢+$330.06

Multicoloured-Serf

Canada

Invested

$740.21

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$704.96

Record

49%

615-642 (1257)

dips.

Canada

Invested

$303.2

Value

$324.83

PnL

+$21.63

Record

47%

860-963 (1823)

sentrioARB<$100

Canada

Invested

$90.21

Value

$162.21

PnL

+$72

Record

43%

915-1235 (2150)

Both legs:

Canada$53.1539.2¢+$75.09

Guatemala$37.066¢-$3.09

Limousin<$100

Canada

Invested

$46.84

Value

$96.02

PnL

+$49.18

Record

36%

879-1566 (2445)

Rocko33<$100

Canada

Invested

$42.65

Value

$49.22

PnL

+$6.57

Record

62%

104-63 (167)

VeryLucky888CTR

Guatemala

Invested

$110

Value

$36

PnL

-$74

Record

53%

1179-1029 (2208)

ferdinand2<$100

Canada

Invested

$9.92

Value

$22.22

PnL

+$12.3

Record

49%

1865-1975 (3840)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR<$100

Guatemala

Invested

$58.75

Value

$19.23

PnL

-$39.52

Record

59%

491-339 (830)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Guatemala

Invested

$26.51

Value

$8.37

PnL

-$18.14

Record

56%

426-340 (766)

poshposhCTR<$100

Guatemala

Invested

$6.45

Value

$3.92

PnL

-$2.52

Record

48%

1014-1100 (2114)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Guatemala

Invested

$3.04

Value

$3.87

PnL

+$0.83

Record

39%

406-629 (1035)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Guatemala

Invested

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$0.78

Record

30%

95-225 (320)

Research grade

NeutralCanada at 83%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Canada

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Canada. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Guatemala) and the top 1000 (11 on Canada) disagree here.

ctrCanada 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedGuatemala 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Canada 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Canada wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.