Will Guatemala win on 2026-11-13?

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 82¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 14

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.9K

Combined PnL

-$238.67

Smart Money Entry

82.1¢ → 81.5¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$14.1K

Total Shares17,272

Combined PnL-$185.19

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares15,089

Combined PnL-$53.48

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Noavg 82.3¢	$5.6K	$5.5K	-$91.52	36% 761-1361 (2122)
LI Limousin	Noavg 81.9¢	$4.3K	$4.2K	-$45.43	35% 735-1379 (2114)
VE Venusian	Noavg 82.5¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$58.59	34% 735-1404 (2139)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 19¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$56.56	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 17.7¢	$824.02	$834.1	+$10.08	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 17.7¢	$522	$531.88	+$9.88
└ No leg	Noavg 80.9¢	$302.02	$302.22	+$0.2
NM NM-P	Noavg 81.9¢	$501.47	$505.01	+$3.54	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GC GC-P	Noavg 82¢	$464.6	$463.55	-$1.05	33% 251-499 (750)
SE sentrioCTR	Yesavg 18.3¢	$272.3	$275.89	+$3.59	43% 808-1065 (1873)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR	Yesavg 18¢	$202.02	$202.02	+$0	50% 118-117 (235)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 78¢	$63.96	$66.42	+$2.46	56% 307-245 (552)
BL BlackMamba08<$100	Noavg 72.7¢	$46.12	$51.36	+$5.24	35% 11-20 (31)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 82.7¢	$50.38	$49.63	-$0.75	35% 749-1385 (2134)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.8¢	$32.92	$27.59	-$0.45	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
GU guilttrip<$100	Noavg 69.7¢	$5.71	$6.63	+$0.92	57% 13-10 (23)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$1.14	$1.08	-$0.06	46% 2084-2445 (4529)

MadridTime

Invested

$5,634.82

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$91.52

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

Limousin

Invested

$4,269.29

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$45.43

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

Venusian

Invested

$3,282.7

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$58.59

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,444

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$56.56

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$824.02

Value

$834.1

PnL

+$10.08

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

Both legs:

Yes$52217.7¢+$9.88

No$302.0280.9¢+$0.2

NM-P

Invested

$501.47

Value

$505.01

PnL

+$3.54

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

GC-P

Invested

$464.6

Value

$463.55

PnL

-$1.05

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

sentrioCTR

Yes

Invested

$272.3

Value

$275.89

PnL

+$3.59

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR

Yes

Invested

$202.02

Value

$202.02

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

118-117 (235)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$63.96

Value

$66.42

PnL

+$2.46

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

BlackMamba08<$100

Invested

$46.12

Value

$51.36

PnL

+$5.24

Record

35%

11-20 (31)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$50.38

Value

$49.63

PnL

-$0.75

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.92

Value

$27.59

PnL

-$0.45

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

guilttrip<$100

Invested

$5.71

Value

$6.63

PnL

+$0.92

Record

57%

13-10 (23)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$0.06

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.