Will Guatemala vs. Canada end in a draw?
6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 81¢ · $738 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 55%
$737.72
-$2.93
79¢ → 80.5¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+5 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 79¢ | $290.05 | $293.89 | +$3.84 | 54% 1849-1555 (3404) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Yesavg 20.7¢ | $197.98 | $186.66 | -$11.32 | 35% 749-1385 (2134) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $85.01 | $86.63 | +$1.61 | 33% 251-499 (750) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $83.92 | $85.52 | +$1.59 | 59% 3648-2489 (6137) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $31.6 | $32.2 | +$0.6 | 56% 307-245 (552) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $20.07 | $20.46 | +$0.38 | 26% 250-703 (953) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.9¢ | $10.35 | $10.65 | +$0.3 | 50% 3193-3131 (6324) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $10.52 | $9.77 | -$0.75 | 36% 761-1361 (2122) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $7.9 | $8.05 | +$0.15 | 53% 1030-921 (1951) |
GU guilttripCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $2.1 | $2.73 | +$0.63 | 57% 13-10 (23) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $1.15 | $1.18 | +$0.03 | 49% 1668-1706 (3374) |
Invested
$290.05
Value
$293.89
PnL
+$3.84
Record
54%
1849-1555 (3404)
Invested
$197.98
Value
$186.66
PnL
-$11.32
Record
35%
749-1385 (2134)
Invested
$85.01
Value
$86.63
PnL
+$1.61
Record
33%
251-499 (750)
Invested
$83.92
Value
$85.52
PnL
+$1.59
Record
59%
3648-2489 (6137)
Invested
$31.6
Value
$32.2
PnL
+$0.6
Record
56%
307-245 (552)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$20.07
Value
$20.46
PnL
+$0.38
Record
26%
250-703 (953)
Invested
$10.35
Value
$10.65
PnL
+$0.3
Record
50%
3193-3131 (6324)
Invested
$10.52
Value
$9.77
PnL
-$0.75
Record
36%
761-1361 (2122)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$7.9
Value
$8.05
PnL
+$0.15
Record
53%
1030-921 (1951)
Invested
$2.1
Value
$2.73
PnL
+$0.63
Record
57%
13-10 (23)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$1.18
PnL
+$0.03
Record
49%
1668-1706 (3374)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.