Will Canada win on 2026-11-13?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 64¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Yes64¢No36¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$7.28

Smart Money Entry

61¢ → 63.5¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes64%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$633.02

Total Shares1,013

Combined PnL+$15.06

No6 traders

Total Value$730.23

Total Shares1,738

Combined PnL-$22.34

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-55 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA DanielsDixon	Yesavg 61¢	$610	$625	+$15	8% 5-58 (63)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 38.2¢	$303.1	$293.02	-$10.08	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 38.8¢	$331.17	$292.69	-$14.44	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 38.2¢	$65.27	$63.29	-$1.98	43% 809-1065 (1874)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$35.11	$37	+$1.9	33% 251-499 (750)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$34.2	$36.04	+$1.85	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$7.76	$8.18	+$0.42	56% 309-246 (555)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$7.96	$8.02	+$0.06	46% 2104-2463 (4567)

DanielsDixon

Yes

Invested

$610

Value

$625

PnL

+$15

Record

5-58 (63)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$303.1

Value

$293.02

PnL

-$10.08

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$331.17

Value

$292.69

PnL

-$14.44

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$65.27

Value

$63.29

PnL

-$1.98

Record

43%

809-1065 (1874)

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$35.11

Value

$37

PnL

+$1.9

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

NM-PCTR<$100

Invested

$34.2

Value

$36.04

PnL

+$1.85

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$7.76

Value

$8.18

PnL

+$0.42

Record

56%

309-246 (555)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.96

Value

$8.02

PnL

+$0.06

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-55 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.