Will Cayman Islands vs. Guyana end in a draw?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 97¢ · $311 held · ends Nov 12

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$310.69

Combined PnL

$2.4

Smart Money Entry

95¢ → 96.7¢

+2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$309.67

Total Shares312

Combined PnL+$2.4

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.02

Total Shares26

Combined PnL+$0

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 94.8¢	$190.97	$192.5	+$1.53	51% 2511-2408 (4919)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 95¢	$64.6	$65.42	+$0.82	52% 183-166 (349)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 96¢	$12.79	$12.55	-$0.24	41% 534-766 (1300)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 96¢	$11.15	$11.23	+$0.08	46% 539-625 (1164)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 96¢	$10.39	$10.46	+$0.08	32% 524-1097 (1621)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$6.46	$6.49	+$0.03	47% 522-594 (1116)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 96¢	$5.86	$5.9	+$0.04	42% 836-1157 (1993)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$5.06	$5.12	+$0.05	40% 3243-4890 (8133)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$1.02	$1.02	+$0	50% 1216-1232 (2448)

Flaznorp

Invested

$190.97

Value

$192.5

PnL

+$1.53

Record

51%

2511-2408 (4919)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$64.6

Value

$65.42

PnL

+$0.82

Record

52%

183-166 (349)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$12.79

Value

$12.55

PnL

-$0.24

Record

41%

534-766 (1300)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$11.15

Value

$11.23

PnL

+$0.08

Record

46%

539-625 (1164)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$10.39

Value

$10.46

PnL

+$0.08

Record

32%

524-1097 (1621)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$6.46

Value

$6.49

PnL

+$0.03

Record

47%

522-594 (1116)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.86

Value

$5.9

PnL

+$0.04

Record

42%

836-1157 (1993)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

$5.12

PnL

+$0.05

Record

40%

3243-4890 (8133)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.02

Value

$1.02

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1216-1232 (2448)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.8%

96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.