Will Barbados vs. Guadeloupe end in a draw?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 94¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 77%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$32.92

Smart Money Entry

80.8¢ → 94¢

+16% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,012

Combined PnL+$355.94

Yes3 traders

Total Value$250.87

Total Shares3,060

Combined PnL-$323.03

No — 77%Yes — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 81.1¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$307.88	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
WI Winning2...CTR	Yesavg 18.6¢	$558.79	$240	-$318.79	— 0-12 (12)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Noavg 84¢	$180.02	$197.17	+$17.14	33% 320-651 (971)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 75¢	$161.15	$174.15	+$13	33% 556-1141 (1697)
dips.<$100	Noavg 80.7¢	$55.68	$63.48	+$7.8	45% 544-659 (1203)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Noavg 78¢	$23.4	$27.6	+$4.2	63% 369-218 (587)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 84.5¢	$25.16	$21.15	+$2.15	49% 1261-1293 (2554)
SM smithagent<$100	Noavg 82.1¢	$18.06	$20.24	+$2.18	42% 353-481 (834)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Noavg 78¢	$10.14	$10.53	+$0.39	27% 185-494 (679)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 81.5¢	$8.15	$9.2	+$1.05	40% 3308-4940 (8248)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$10.61	$7.64	-$2.97	32% 542-1134 (1676)
LR lryyy<$100	Noavg 78¢	$3.9	$4.05	+$0.15	44% 405-509 (914)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$4.5	$3.24	-$1.26	33% 539-1116 (1655)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,960.33

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$307.88

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

Winning2...CTR

Yes

Invested

$558.79

Value

$240

PnL

-$318.79

Record

—

0-12 (12)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Invested

$180.02

Value

$197.17

PnL

+$17.14

Record

33%

320-651 (971)

LightParadox

Invested

$161.15

Value

$174.15

PnL

+$13

Record

33%

556-1141 (1697)

dips.<$100

Invested

$55.68

Value

$63.48

PnL

+$7.8

Record

45%

544-659 (1203)

suitcase6628<$100

Invested

$23.4

Value

$27.6

PnL

+$4.2

Record

63%

369-218 (587)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$25.16

Value

$21.15

PnL

+$2.15

Record

49%

1261-1293 (2554)

smithagent<$100

Invested

$18.06

Value

$20.24

PnL

+$2.18

Record

42%

353-481 (834)

SlickRick123<$100

Invested

$10.14

Value

$10.53

PnL

+$0.39

Record

27%

185-494 (679)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$8.15

Value

$9.2

PnL

+$1.05

Record

40%

3308-4940 (8248)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.61

Value

$7.64

PnL

-$2.97

Record

32%

542-1134 (1676)

lryyy<$100

Invested

$3.9

Value

$4.05

PnL

+$0.15

Record

44%

405-509 (914)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.5

Value

$3.24

PnL

-$1.26

Record

33%

539-1116 (1655)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.