Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bonaire vs. Cuba: Draw at halftime?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 1.5¢ · $411 held · ends Nov 12

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$411.48

Combined PnL

-$617.17

Smart Money Entry

24.9¢ → 1.5¢

-94% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$298.44

Total Shares297

Combined PnL+$13.15

Yes8 traders

Total Value$113.04

Total Shares2,906

Combined PnL-$630.32

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 80.4¢	$223.26	$230.07	+$6.82	55% 1658-1365 (3023)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 89.8¢	$62.03	$68.37	+$6.34	43% 2584-3425 (6009)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 19.9¢	$133.08	$43.36	-$89.72	46% 443-515 (958)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 33.3¢	$455.43	$26.26	-$419.6	40% 3308-4940 (8248)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.2¢	$48.05	$16.29	-$31.76	36% 209-370 (579)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.1¢	$43.11	$12.68	-$30.44	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$32.14	$11	-$21.15	47% 549-607 (1156)
LE LexingtonCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.1¢	$9.13	$1.8	-$7.32	— 0-3 (3)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.5¢	$20	$1.08	-$18.92	33% 539-1116 (1655)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$12	$0.57	-$11.43	34% 564-1116 (1680)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$223.26

Value

$230.07

PnL

+$6.82

Record

55%

1658-1365 (3023)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$62.03

Value

$68.37

PnL

+$6.34

Record

43%

2584-3425 (6009)

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$133.08

Value

$43.36

PnL

-$89.72

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$455.43

Value

$26.26

PnL

-$419.6

Record

40%

3308-4940 (8248)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.05

Value

$16.29

PnL

-$31.76

Record

36%

209-370 (579)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.11

Value

$12.68

PnL

-$30.44

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.14

Value

$11

PnL

-$21.15

Record

47%

549-607 (1156)

LexingtonCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.13

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$7.32

Record

—

0-3 (3)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$18.92

Record

33%

539-1116 (1655)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12

Value

$0.57

PnL

-$11.43

Record

34%

564-1116 (1680)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.6%

1.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3714.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

3814.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.