Cuba leading at halftime?

6 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (24%) · Yes at 99¢ · $38K held · ends Nov 12

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 24%

Total Value

$37.5K

Combined PnL

$905.93

Smart Money Entry

82.7¢ → 99¢

+20% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 25 top traders (24%)19 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$36.3K

Total Shares36,665

Combined PnL+$5.5K

No19 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares34,547

Combined PnL$-4.6K

Yes — 24%No — 76%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

28% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 93% · 14

Diverging

Top 1000No 72% · 25

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 83.3¢	$23.7K	$28.1K	+$4.4K	56% 92-73 (165)
DFSgznhdfsnhzfgdshndzf	Yesavg 79.2¢	$3.2K	$4.0K	+$787.77	60% 147-97 (244)
GO gotozer0	Yesavg 83.2¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$275.11	— 1-1 (2)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 77.2¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$66.91	55% 1658-1365 (3023)
itoney17	Yesavg 86¢	$517.12	$535.17	+$18.05	— 1-0 (1)
WH whosay	Yesavg 87¢	$443.23	$453.42	+$10.19	66% 29-15 (44)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Noavg 23¢	$500	$239.13	-$260.87	48% 21-23 (44)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Noavg 23¢	$500	$239.13	-$260.87	11% 21-177 (198)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 22.3¢	$317.84	$156.81	-$161.03	36% 209-370 (579)
poshposhCTR	Noavg 21.7¢	$279.5	$142.29	-$137.21	47% 549-607 (1156)
LE LexingtonCTR	Noavg 10.6¢	$1.3K	$125.32	$-1.1K	— 0-3 (3)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 21.7¢	$242.5	$122.85	-$119.65	46% 443-515 (958)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 20.4¢	$964.41	$51.88	-$912.53	33% 556-1141 (1697)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 19.4¢	$907.72	$51.49	-$856.23	33% 539-1116 (1655)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 20.4¢	$434.66	$23.45	-$411.22	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Noavg 6.7¢	$21.55	$20.81	-$0.74	43% 2584-3425 (6009)
dips.CTR	Noavg 11.6¢	$203.82	$19.34	-$184.48	45% 544-659 (1203)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Noavg 9.5¢	$16.1	$18.61	+$2.5	44% 405-509 (914)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$9.1	$10.01	+$0.91	27% 185-494 (679)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$47.52	$2.27	-$45.25	34% 564-1116 (1680)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 23.5¢	$33.78	$1.58	-$32.2	32% 542-1134 (1676)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Noavg 11.7¢	$33.51	$1.3	-$17.91	55% 89-74 (163)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Noavg 11.1¢	$15.09	$0.62	-$9.49	42% 353-481 (834)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$5.03	$0.35	-$4.68	49% 1261-1293 (2554)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 7.1¢	$1.5	$0.23	-$1.27	40% 3308-4940 (8248)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$23,711.37

Value

$28.1K

PnL

+$4.4K

Record

56%

92-73 (165)

DFSgznhdfsnhzfgdshndzf

Yes

Invested

$3,168.23

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$787.77

Record

60%

147-97 (244)

gotozer0

Yes

Invested

$1,499.93

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$275.11

Record

—

1-1 (2)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$1,496.88

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$66.91

Record

55%

1658-1365 (3023)

itoney17

Yes

Invested

$517.12

Value

$535.17

PnL

+$18.05

Record

—

1-0 (1)

whosay

Yes

Invested

$443.23

Value

$453.42

PnL

+$10.19

Record

66%

29-15 (44)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$239.13

PnL

-$260.87

Record

48%

21-23 (44)

NotradecopyCTR

Invested

$500

Value

$239.13

PnL

-$260.87

Record

11%

21-177 (198)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$317.84

Value

$156.81

PnL

-$161.03

Record

36%

209-370 (579)

poshposhCTR

Invested

$279.5

Value

$142.29

PnL

-$137.21

Record

47%

549-607 (1156)

LexingtonCTR

Invested

$1,267.48

Value

$125.32

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

—

0-3 (3)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$242.5

Value

$122.85

PnL

-$119.65

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$964.41

Value

$51.88

PnL

-$912.53

Record

33%

556-1141 (1697)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$907.72

Value

$51.49

PnL

-$856.23

Record

33%

539-1116 (1655)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$434.66

Value

$23.45

PnL

-$411.22

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

e46m3CTR<$100

Invested

$21.55

Value

$20.81

PnL

-$0.74

Record

43%

2584-3425 (6009)

dips.CTR

Invested

$203.82

Value

$19.34

PnL

-$184.48

Record

45%

544-659 (1203)

lryyyCTR<$100

Invested

$16.1

Value

$18.61

PnL

+$2.5

Record

44%

405-509 (914)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Invested

$9.1

Value

$10.01

PnL

+$0.91

Record

27%

185-494 (679)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$47.52

Value

$2.27

PnL

-$45.25

Record

34%

564-1116 (1680)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$33.78

Value

$1.58

PnL

-$32.2

Record

32%

542-1134 (1676)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Invested

$33.51

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$17.91

Record

55%

89-74 (163)

smithagentCTR<$100

Invested

$15.09

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$9.49

Record

42%

353-481 (834)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$4.68

Record

49%

1261-1293 (2554)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$1.5

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$1.27

Record

40%

3308-4940 (8248)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 25 top traders (24%)19 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

28% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 93% · 14

Diverging

Top 1000No 72% · 25

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.