Bermuda vs. St. Lucia: O/U 3.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (36%) · Over at 57¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 13

Over57¢Under43¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 36%

Total Value

$12.4K

Combined PnL

$794.88

Smart Money Entry

54.2¢ → 57.5¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$12.1K

Total Shares20,797

Combined PnL+$795.34

Under7 traders

Total Value$353.76

Total Shares842

Combined PnL-$0.45

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Overavg 54¢	$10.6K	$11.3K	+$782.34	51% 3819-3610 (7429)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 58¢	$463.97	$463.97	-$0	22% 266-965 (1231)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 42¢	$270.33	$270.19	-$0.14	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 55¢	$243.77	$256.77	+$13	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 42.1¢	$34.01	$33.94	-$0.07	34% 735-1404 (2139)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$18.22	$18.22	-$0	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 42.3¢	$15.49	$15.39	-$0.1	35% 735-1379 (2114)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$6.45	$6.3	-$0.15	43% 808-1065 (1873)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$5.56	$5.56	+$0	36% 761-1361 (2122)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$4.16	$4.16	+$0	35% 749-1385 (2134)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 58¢	$1.04	$1.03	-$0.01	46% 2084-2445 (4529)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Over

Invested

$10,561.67

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$782.34

Record

51%

3819-3610 (7429)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$463.97

Value

$463.97

PnL

-$0

Record

22%

266-965 (1231)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$270.33

Value

$270.19

PnL

-$0.14

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$243.77

Value

$256.77

PnL

+$13

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$34.01

Value

$33.94

PnL

-$0.07

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.22

Value

$18.22

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.49

Value

$15.39

PnL

-$0.1

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.45

Value

$6.3

PnL

-$0.15

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.56

Value

$5.56

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.16

Value

$4.16

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.