Will St. Lucia win on 2026-11-13?
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 83¢ · $448 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 25%
1 arb excluded
$447.63
$31.75
78.7¢ → 82.5¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+8 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 78.6¢ | $148.34 | $156.55 | +$8.21 | 54% 1849-1555 (3404) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 24.3¢ | $136.97 | $135.99 | -$0.98 | 50% 3193-3131 (6324) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 61.5¢ | $56.67 | $76.52 | +$19.85 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 24.3¢ | $80.3 | $59.48 | -$20.82 | |
MO mouzsynapseCTR | Noavg 17¢ | $100.26 | $103.21 | +$2.95 | 41% 91-132 (223) |
GU guilttripCTR | Noavg 37.1¢ | $113.76 | $23.75 | +$26.65 | 57% 13-10 (23) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 25.8¢ | $23.85 | $16.63 | -$7.22 | 43% 808-1065 (1873) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 20¢ | $7.67 | $6.9 | -$0.77 | 35% 735-1379 (2114) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Noavg 18¢ | $2.19 | $2.13 | -$0.06 | 36% 761-1361 (2122) |
SU suntori<$100 | Yesavg 83¢ | $1.9 | $1.89 | -$0.01 | 46% 2084-2445 (4529) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Noavg 22¢ | $8.92 | $0.58 | +$1.99 | 49% 1668-1706 (3374) |
Invested
$148.34
Value
$156.55
PnL
+$8.21
Record
54%
1849-1555 (3404)
Invested
$136.97
Value
$135.99
PnL
-$0.98
Record
50%
3193-3131 (6324)
Both legs:
Invested
$100.26
Value
$103.21
PnL
+$2.95
Record
41%
91-132 (223)
Invested
$113.76
Value
$23.75
PnL
+$26.65
Record
57%
13-10 (23)
Invested
$23.85
Value
$16.63
PnL
-$7.22
Record
43%
808-1065 (1873)
Invested
$7.67
Value
$6.9
PnL
-$0.77
Record
35%
735-1379 (2114)
Invested
$2.19
Value
$2.13
PnL
-$0.06
Record
36%
761-1361 (2122)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$1.89
PnL
-$0.01
Record
46%
2084-2445 (4529)
Invested
$8.92
Value
$0.58
PnL
+$1.99
Record
49%
1668-1706 (3374)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.