Will Deportes Quindio vs. Tigres FC end in a draw?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 95¢ · $865 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
1 arb excluded
$865.1
-$389.44
83.3¢ → 95¢
+14% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadox | Noavg 86¢ | $935.67 | $554.87 | -$380.8 | 31% 412-920 (1332) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 14.4¢ | $265.61 | $168.28 | -$92.75 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 89.3¢ | $103.6 | $109.57 | +$5.97 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 14.4¢ | $153.41 | $58.71 | -$98.72 | |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $89.92 | $76.65 | -$4.89 | 52% 497-453 (950) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 68.9¢ | $44.4 | $42.49 | -$1.91 | 20% 161-629 (790) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $8 | $8.2 | +$0.2 | 31% 411-924 (1335) |
WA WagerWizard<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $6 | $5.9 | -$0.1 | 12% 24-178 (202) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $4.85 | $3.76 | -$1.09 | 39% 162-258 (420) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $3.6 | $3.4 | -$0.2 | 30% 402-921 (1323) |
BE 0xbe9f...014aCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $2.2 | $1.55 | -$0.65 | — |
Invested
$935.67
Value
$554.87
PnL
-$380.8
Record
31%
412-920 (1332)
Invested
$265.61
Value
$168.28
PnL
-$92.75
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$89.92
Value
$76.65
PnL
-$4.89
Record
52%
497-453 (950)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$44.4
Value
$42.49
PnL
-$1.91
Record
20%
161-629 (790)
Invested
$8
Value
$8.2
PnL
+$0.2
Record
31%
411-924 (1335)
Invested
$6
Value
$5.9
PnL
-$0.1
Record
12%
24-178 (202)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$3.76
PnL
-$1.09
Record
39%
162-258 (420)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$3.4
PnL
-$0.2
Record
30%
402-921 (1323)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$1.55
PnL
-$0.65
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.