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NoNo
machinelearned<$100YesYesNo
tradecraftCTR<$100No
VeryLucky888CTR<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will Independiente Valle Del Cauca vs. Union Magdalena end in a draw?
Resolved Yes. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
No 60%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$892.86
Combined PnL
-$794.92
Smart Money Signal
No
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,491
Combined PnL-$818.93
Yes2 traders
Total Value$46.69
Total Shares47
Combined PnL+$24.01
No — 67%Yes — 33%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 51.5¢ | $2.2K | $846.17 | $-2.0K | 52% 271-247 (518) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50.5¢ | $427.49 | $846.17 | +$418.64 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 51.5¢ | $1.7K | — | $-2.4K | |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 59.1¢ | $743.38 | — | -$743.38 | 52% 50-46 (96) |
machinelearned<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $16 | $40 | +$24 | 44% 161-208 (369) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 99.9¢ | $6.68 | $6.69 | +$0.01 | 64% 59-33 (92) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Noavg 69¢ | $0.94 | — | -$0.94 | 36% 86-155 (241) |
tradecraftCTR<$100 | Noavg 66.3¢ | $74.61 | — | -$74.61 | 21% 48-185 (233) |
VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 66.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 76-76 (152) |
FL
FlaznorpARB<$100Invested
$2,154.74
Value
$846.17
PnL
$-2.0K
Record
52%
271-247 (518)
Both legs:
Yes$427.4950.5¢+$418.64
No$1,727.2151.5¢$-2.4K
GO
GoalLineGhostCTRInvested
$743.38
Value
—
PnL
-$743.38
Record
52%
50-46 (96)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$16
Value
$40
PnL
+$24
Record
44%
161-208 (369)
XT
xtxpleasecallme<$100Invested
$6.68
Value
$6.69
PnL
+$0.01
Record
64%
59-33 (92)
OM
omnibus-076daaCTRInvested
$0.94
Value
—
PnL
-$0.94
Record
36%
86-155 (241)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$74.61
Value
—
PnL
-$74.61
Record
21%
48-185 (233)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
76-76 (152)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x94e38c1c...123fb9
Slug
col2-ind-umg-2026-11-09-draw