Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Llaneros FC vs. Boyacá Chicó FC: O/U 2.5

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (89%) · Over at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 89%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$22.25

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 49.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares4,814

Combined PnL-$21.56

Under1 trader

Total Value$69.31

Total Shares137

Combined PnL-$0.69

Over — 89%Under — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 50¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$12.87	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 50¢	$826	$817.74	-$8.26	55% 1738-1449 (3187)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$84.66	$83.81	-$0.85	49% 1386-1434 (2820)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Underavg 51¢	$70	$69.31	-$0.69	30% 186-444 (630)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$35.6	$35.96	+$0.36	39% 71-109 (180)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$24.01	$24.01	+$0	43% 119-161 (280)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$2.97	$2.97	+$0	53% 852-766 (1618)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.45	+$0.05	35% 657-1232 (1889)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.45	+$0	54% 244-207 (451)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$1,426.12

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$12.87

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$826

Value

$817.74

PnL

-$8.26

Record

55%

1738-1449 (3187)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$84.66

Value

$83.81

PnL

-$0.85

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Under

Invested

$70

Value

$69.31

PnL

-$0.69

Record

30%

186-444 (630)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35.6

Value

$35.96

PnL

+$0.36

Record

39%

71-109 (180)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.01

Value

$24.01

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

119-161 (280)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.97

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

852-766 (1618)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.05

Record

35%

657-1232 (1889)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

244-207 (451)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.