Deportivo Pereira vs. América de Cali: O/U 3.5

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 62¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Over39¢Under61¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 25%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$0.04

Smart Money Entry

66.1¢ → 61.5¢

-7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,546

Combined PnL-$46.57

Over9 traders

Total Value$557.76

Total Shares1,472

Combined PnL+$46.53

Under — 25%Over — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO mouzsynapse	Underavg 63¢	$492.78	$481.05	-$11.73	39% 118-185 (303)
LuccaF7CTR	Overavg 36.9¢	$331.17	$345.51	+$14.34	67% 16-8 (24)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 69.6¢	$322.66	$285.08	-$37.58	53% 2094-1845 (3939)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 69¢	$299.5	$252.55	+$2.75	53% 1366-1192 (2558)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 31¢	$130.11	$161.59	+$31.48	49% 3844-4007 (7851)
JA JabJabichCTR<$100	Overavg 34.3¢	$26.79	$27.71	+$0.93	31% 30-66 (96)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 31¢	$9.61	$9.46	-$0.15	48% 2091-2257 (4348)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 31.6¢	$7.27	$7.02	-$0.25	36% 443-803 (1246)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$2.64	$2.23	-$0.41	37% 972-1637 (2609)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$1.5	$1.55	+$0.05	42% 1002-1373 (2375)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$1.7	$1.35	-$0.35	37% 964-1664 (2628)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$3.3	$1.35	+$0.9	41% 698-1011 (1709)

mouzsynapse

Under

Invested

$492.78

Value

$481.05

PnL

-$11.73

Record

39%

118-185 (303)

LuccaF7CTR

Over

Invested

$331.17

Value

$345.51

PnL

+$14.34

Record

67%

16-8 (24)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$322.66

Value

$285.08

PnL

-$37.58

Record

53%

2094-1845 (3939)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$299.5

Value

$252.55

PnL

+$2.75

Record

53%

1366-1192 (2558)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$130.11

Value

$161.59

PnL

+$31.48

Record

49%

3844-4007 (7851)

JabJabichCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.79

Value

$27.71

PnL

+$0.93

Record

31%

30-66 (96)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.61

Value

$9.46

PnL

-$0.15

Record

48%

2091-2257 (4348)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.27

Value

$7.02

PnL

-$0.25

Record

36%

443-803 (1246)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.64

Value

$2.23

PnL

-$0.41

Record

37%

972-1637 (2609)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.55

PnL

+$0.05

Record

42%

1002-1373 (2375)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$0.35

Record

37%

964-1664 (2628)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.3

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$0.9

Record

41%

698-1011 (1709)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.