Spread: América de Cali (-2.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Deportivo Pereira (33%) · Deportivo Pereira at 79¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 14

América de Cali21¢Deportivo Pereira79¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Deportivo Pereira

Consensus Traders

Deportivo Pereira 33%

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

-$194.32

Smart Money Entry

73.1¢ → 79¢

+8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralDeportivo Pereira at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Deportivo Pereira

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

América de Cali21%

Deportivo Pereira79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Deportivo Pereira3 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares6,928

Combined PnL+$353.24

América de Cali6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares8,804

Combined PnL-$547.57

Deportivo Pereira — 33%América de Cali — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Deportivo Pereira. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpAmérica de Cali 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrAmérica de Cali 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000América de Cali 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Deportivo Pereiraavg 73.7¢	$3.4K	$3.7K	+$296.01	53% 2162-1905 (4067)
JA JabJabichCTR	América de Caliavg 27.8¢	$2.5K	$1.6K	-$545.65	32% 31-66 (97)
poshposh	Deportivo Pereiraavg 72.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$9.32	49% 1169-1236 (2405)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69	Deportivo Pereiraavg 70.6¢	$476.56	$543.11	+$66.55	50% 161-158 (319)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	América de Caliavg 26¢	$208	$203.47	-$4.53	25% 350-1027 (1377)
itoney17CTR<$100	América de Caliavg 24¢	$48	$50.87	+$2.87	— 11-2 (13)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	América de Caliavg 19.2¢	$38.6	$38.04	-$0.56	45% 263-319 (582)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	América de Caliavg 21¢	$2.1	$2.54	+$0.44	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	América de Caliavg 28¢	$1.4	$1.27	-$0.13	42% 1030-1415 (2445)

GoalLineGhost

Deportivo Pereira

Invested

$3,385.87

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$296.01

Record

53%

2162-1905 (4067)

JabJabichCTR

América de Cali

Invested

$2,465.4

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$545.65

Record

32%

31-66 (97)

poshposh

Deportivo Pereira

Invested

$1,442.09

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$9.32

Record

49%

1169-1236 (2405)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69

Deportivo Pereira

Invested

$476.56

Value

$543.11

PnL

+$66.55

Record

50%

161-158 (319)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

América de Cali

Invested

$208

Value

$203.47

PnL

-$4.53

Record

25%

350-1027 (1377)

itoney17CTR<$100

América de Cali

Invested

$48

Value

$50.87

PnL

+$2.87

Record

—

11-2 (13)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

América de Cali

Invested

$38.6

Value

$38.04

PnL

-$0.56

Record

45%

263-319 (582)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

América de Cali

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.54

PnL

+$0.44

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

sentrioCTR<$100

América de Cali

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.27

PnL

-$0.13

Record

42%

1030-1415 (2445)

Research grade

NeutralDeportivo Pereira at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Deportivo Pereira

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Deportivo Pereira. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpAmérica de Cali 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrAmérica de Cali 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000América de Cali 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Deportivo Pereira wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.