Deportivo Pereira leading at halftime?

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 87¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$15.31

Smart Money Entry

88.5¢ → 86.5¢

-2% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,347

Combined PnL-$18.05

Yes4 traders

Total Value$235.62

Total Shares1,798

Combined PnL+$33.36

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 88.7¢	$977.55	$942.5	-$18.96	53% 2108-1855 (3963)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 11¢	$160.72	$196.47	+$35.75	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 89.6¢	$308.23	$98.03	-$96.57	39% 3661-5820 (9481)
└ No leg	Noavg 89.6¢	$76.38	$74.63	-$38.05
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33.3¢	$62.39	$23.4	-$58.52
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 85.6¢	$63.25	$65.73	+$2.48	37% 977-1669 (2646)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 85.9¢	$63.05	$65.3	+$2.25	36% 950-1657 (2607)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 90¢	$42.34	$40.69	-$1.65	57% 747-553 (1300)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.7¢	$23.67	$23.16	-$0.51	42% 1008-1381 (2389)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 89¢	$19.68	$19.13	-$0.55	50% 763-758 (1521)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 90¢	$18	$17.9	-$0.1	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.5¢	$11.9	$14.03	+$2.13	48% 2109-2267 (4376)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 89¢	$11.73	$11.4	-$0.33	61% 773-494 (1267)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 90.6¢	$10.37	$9.9	-$0.46	52% 810-753 (1563)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 90¢	$9.09	$8.74	-$0.35	58% 767-547 (1314)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 89¢	$8.93	$8.68	-$0.25	46% 1139-1332 (2471)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 90¢	$4.5	$4.38	-$0.13	49% 798-831 (1629)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$5.97	$1.97	-$4	18% 853-3934 (4787)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$977.55

Value

$942.5

PnL

-$18.96

Record

53%

2108-1855 (3963)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$160.72

Value

$196.47

PnL

+$35.75

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$308.23

Value

$98.03

PnL

-$96.57

Record

39%

3661-5820 (9481)

Both legs:

No$76.3889.6¢-$38.05

Yes$62.3933.3¢-$58.52

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$63.25

Value

$65.73

PnL

+$2.48

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$63.05

Value

$65.3

PnL

+$2.25

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$42.34

Value

$40.69

PnL

-$1.65

Record

57%

747-553 (1300)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.67

Value

$23.16

PnL

-$0.51

Record

42%

1008-1381 (2389)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$19.68

Value

$19.13

PnL

-$0.55

Record

50%

763-758 (1521)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18

Value

$17.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.9

Value

$14.03

PnL

+$2.13

Record

48%

2109-2267 (4376)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$11.73

Value

$11.4

PnL

-$0.33

Record

61%

773-494 (1267)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$10.37

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$0.46

Record

52%

810-753 (1563)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$9.09

Value

$8.74

PnL

-$0.35

Record

58%

767-547 (1314)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$8.93

Value

$8.68

PnL

-$0.25

Record

46%

1139-1332 (2471)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.38

PnL

-$0.13

Record

49%

798-831 (1629)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.97

Value

$1.97

PnL

-$4

Record

18%

853-3934 (4787)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.