Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 3 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Deportivo Pereira vs. América de Cali: Draw at halftime?

3 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (18%) · Yes at 40¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 18%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$72.14

Smart Money Entry

44.1¢ → 40¢

-9% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 17 top traders (18%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$982.81

Total Shares1,625

Combined PnL+$38.6

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,603

Combined PnL+$33.54

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 56.3¢	$736.78	$764.7	+$27.92	53% 2108-1855 (3963)
LuccaF7CTR	Yesavg 44¢	$559.2	$635.11	+$75.91	59% 16-11 (27)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Yesavg 43.6¢	$526.01	$494.97	-$31.04	48% 293-321 (614)
SilentSharkCTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$62.94	$51.61	-$11.33	— 0-1 (1)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 54.5¢	$34.44	$35.71	+$1.28	49% 828-860 (1688)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 56¢	$33.6	$34.8	+$1.2	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 55.8¢	$22.3	$23	+$0.7	29% 3215-8065 (11280)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 54¢	$30.78	$21.47	+$3.17	39% 3661-5820 (9481)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 56.6¢	$20.76	$21.11	+$0.35	58% 767-547 (1314)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 50¢	$17.79	$20.99	+$3.2	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 57.2¢	$19.73	$19.82	+$0.09	49% 798-831 (1629)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 57.4¢	$11.64	$11.65	+$0.01	52% 810-753 (1563)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 56¢	$8.58	$8.81	+$0.23	51% 847-812 (1659)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 54.6¢	$6.68	$6.91	+$0.23	57% 747-553 (1300)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 56.7¢	$6.41	$6.38	-$0.03	46% 1139-1332 (2471)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 55¢	$4.49	$4.61	+$0.12	61% 773-494 (1267)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 54¢	$2.71	$2.84	+$0.13	50% 763-758 (1521)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$736.78

Value

$764.7

PnL

+$27.92

Record

53%

2108-1855 (3963)

LuccaF7CTR

Yes

Invested

$559.2

Value

$635.11

PnL

+$75.91

Record

59%

16-11 (27)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Yes

Invested

$526.01

Value

$494.97

PnL

-$31.04

Record

48%

293-321 (614)

SilentSharkCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.94

Value

$51.61

PnL

-$11.33

Record

—

0-1 (1)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$34.44

Value

$35.71

PnL

+$1.28

Record

49%

828-860 (1688)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$33.6

Value

$34.8

PnL

+$1.2

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$22.3

Value

$23

PnL

+$0.7

Record

29%

3215-8065 (11280)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$30.78

Value

$21.47

PnL

+$3.17

Record

39%

3661-5820 (9481)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$20.76

Value

$21.11

PnL

+$0.35

Record

58%

767-547 (1314)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$17.79

Value

$20.99

PnL

+$3.2

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$19.73

Value

$19.82

PnL

+$0.09

Record

49%

798-831 (1629)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$11.64

Value

$11.65

PnL

+$0.01

Record

52%

810-753 (1563)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$8.58

Value

$8.81

PnL

+$0.23

Record

51%

847-812 (1659)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$6.68

Value

$6.91

PnL

+$0.23

Record

57%

747-553 (1300)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$6.41

Value

$6.38

PnL

-$0.03

Record

46%

1139-1332 (2471)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.49

Value

$4.61

PnL

+$0.12

Record

61%

773-494 (1267)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$2.71

Value

$2.84

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

763-758 (1521)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 17 top traders (18%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.