Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 4 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

América de Cali leading at halftime?

4 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 49¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Yes49¢No51¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$3.68

Smart Money Entry

47.9¢ → 48.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 14 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,233

Combined PnL+$12.6

No10 traders

Total Value$271.52

Total Shares527

Combined PnL-$16.28

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 51.4¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$17.95	53% 2108-1855 (3963)
└ No leg	Noavg 51.4¢	$774.14	$774.98	+$0.84
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45.6¢	$235.29	$250.5	+$17.11
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 48.1¢	$826.14	$833.82	+$7.68	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
SE sentrioCTR	Yesavg 48¢	$188.78	$190.99	+$2.21	42% 1008-1381 (2389)
LuccaF7	Noavg 55.1¢	$183.3	$171.28	-$12.02	59% 16-11 (27)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 48.6¢	$51.68	$51.61	-$0.07	48% 2109-2267 (4376)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 53.5¢	$25.15	$24.23	-$0.92	50% 763-758 (1521)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 58.5¢	$23.4	$20.8	-$2.6	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 52.6¢	$15.57	$15.23	-$0.34	49% 828-860 (1688)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 52¢	$11.5	$11.39	-$0.11	57% 747-553 (1300)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$6.33	$9.12	+$2.79	39% 3661-5820 (9481)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 51.7¢	$8.16	$8.13	-$0.03	46% 1139-1332 (2471)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 52¢	$6.85	$6.79	-$0.07	52% 810-753 (1563)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 52.4¢	$6.01	$5.9	-$0.11	61% 773-494 (1267)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 52¢	$5.25	$5.2	-$0.05	49% 798-831 (1629)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.58	-$0.02	58% 767-547 (1314)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$1,042.07

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$17.95

Record

53%

2108-1855 (3963)

Both legs:

No$774.1451.4¢+$0.84

Yes$235.2945.6¢+$17.11

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$826.14

Value

$833.82

PnL

+$7.68

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

sentrioCTR

Yes

Invested

$188.78

Value

$190.99

PnL

+$2.21

Record

42%

1008-1381 (2389)

LuccaF7

Invested

$183.3

Value

$171.28

PnL

-$12.02

Record

59%

16-11 (27)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.68

Value

$51.61

PnL

-$0.07

Record

48%

2109-2267 (4376)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$25.15

Value

$24.23

PnL

-$0.92

Record

50%

763-758 (1521)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$23.4

Value

$20.8

PnL

-$2.6

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$15.57

Value

$15.23

PnL

-$0.34

Record

49%

828-860 (1688)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$11.5

Value

$11.39

PnL

-$0.11

Record

57%

747-553 (1300)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.33

Value

$9.12

PnL

+$2.79

Record

39%

3661-5820 (9481)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$8.16

Value

$8.13

PnL

-$0.03

Record

46%

1139-1332 (2471)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$6.85

Value

$6.79

PnL

-$0.07

Record

52%

810-753 (1563)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$6.01

Value

$5.9

PnL

-$0.11

Record

61%

773-494 (1267)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.25

Value

$5.2

PnL

-$0.05

Record

49%

798-831 (1629)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.58

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

767-547 (1314)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 49%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 14 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.