Will Deportivo Pereira vs. América de Cali end in a draw?

30 of 39 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 65¢ · $158K held · ends Nov 14

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 77%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$157.9K

Combined PnL

$190.85

Smart Money Entry

74.3¢ → 65¢

-12% since entry · 30 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

30 of 39 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No30 traders

Total Value$119.9K

Total Shares177,915

Combined PnL$-14.4K

Yes9 traders

Total Value$37.7K

Total Shares95,948

Combined PnL+$14.5K

No — 77%Yes — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 74.8¢	$71.0K	$64.1K	$-6.9K	55% 5370-4319 (9689)
GA Gaditima	Noavg 74.2¢	$18.5K	$16.8K	$-1.7K	48% 278-297 (575)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 73.1¢	$15.2K	$13.8K	$-1.4K	53% 2094-1845 (3939)
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540CTR	Yesavg 23.7¢	$12.1K	$13.6K	+$9.5K	53% 85-75 (160)
LuccaF7CTR	Yesavg 54.3¢	$10.8K	$8.8K	$-2.0K	67% 16-8 (24)
JA JabJabichCTR	Yesavg 23.5¢	$6.1K	$7.6K	+$5.4K	31% 30-66 (96)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 75.4¢	$16.2K	$5.7K	$-2.3K	59% 502-345 (847)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 71.1¢	$5.8K	$5.2K	-$621.63	53% 7092-6207 (13299)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR	Yesavg 27¢	$3.6K	$5.1K	+$1.5K	— 4-0 (4)
tradecraft	Noavg 72.3¢	$3.1K	$2.6K	-$433.76	30% 340-779 (1119)
SE sentrio	Noavg 78¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$179.09	42% 1002-1373 (2375)
poshposhCTR	Yesavg 31.8¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$412.17	48% 1130-1207 (2337)
GC GC-P	Noavg 81.2¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$11.64	37% 357-610 (967)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69	Noavg 69¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$127.43	50% 155-156 (311)
NM NM-P	Noavg 81¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$7.62	59% 3767-2593 (6360)
FO forecastication4	Noavg 72¢	$961.49	$994.87	+$33.38	33% 168-336 (504)
BA Bayupati	Noavg 75.5¢	$717.03	$589.19	-$127.84	18% 32-145 (177)
MO mouzsynapse	Noavg 70¢	$521.96	$529.42	+$7.46	39% 118-185 (303)
NO Notradecopy	Noavg 65.7¢	$499.99	$513.31	+$13.32	20% 48-193 (241)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Noavg 66¢	$500	$511.36	+$11.36	53% 41-37 (78)
eightpenguinsCTR	Yesavg 58¢	$643.8	$488.4	-$155.4	— 5-0 (5)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 80.2¢	$399.99	$401.25	+$1.26	39% 3653-5798 (9451)
AY ay118ARB<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$372.23	$292.29	-$79.94	28% 38-97 (135)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 62¢	$264.73	$185.74	-$78.99
└ No leg	Noavg 57¢	$107.49	$106.55	-$0.94
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 77¢	$292.46	$264.1	-$28.36	48% 288-310 (598)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 78.3¢	$310.02	$249.48	-$60.54	55% 469-381 (850)

RN1

Invested

$70,989.75

Value

$64.1K

PnL

$-6.9K

Record

55%

5370-4319 (9689)

Gaditima

Invested

$18,494.1

Value

$16.8K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

48%

278-297 (575)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$15,156.94

Value

$13.8K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

53%

2094-1845 (3939)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540CTR

Yes

Invested

$12,067.2

Value

$13.6K

PnL

+$9.5K

Record

53%

85-75 (160)

LuccaF7CTR

Yes

Invested

$10,850

Value

$8.8K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

67%

16-8 (24)

JabJabichCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,051.02

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$5.4K

Record

31%

30-66 (96)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$16,178.82

Value

$5.7K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

59%

502-345 (847)

cigarettes

Invested

$5,822.57

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$621.63

Record

53%

7092-6207 (13299)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,632.42

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

—

4-0 (4)

tradecraft

Invested

$3,053.16

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$433.76

Record

30%

340-779 (1119)

sentrio

Invested

$2,338.48

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$179.09

Record

42%

1002-1373 (2375)

poshposhCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,709.06

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$412.17

Record

48%

1130-1207 (2337)

GC-P

Invested

$1,450.57

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$11.64

Record

37%

357-610 (967)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69

Invested

$1,465.41

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$127.43

Record

50%

155-156 (311)

NM-P

Invested

$1,234.8

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$7.62

Record

59%

3767-2593 (6360)

forecastication4

Invested

$961.49

Value

$994.87

PnL

+$33.38

Record

33%

168-336 (504)

Bayupati

Invested

$717.03

Value

$589.19

PnL

-$127.84

Record

18%

32-145 (177)

mouzsynapse

Invested

$521.96

Value

$529.42

PnL

+$7.46

Record

39%

118-185 (303)

Notradecopy

Invested

$499.99

Value

$513.31

PnL

+$13.32

Record

20%

48-193 (241)

GamblingAddict12345

Invested

$500

Value

$511.36

PnL

+$11.36

Record

53%

41-37 (78)

eightpenguinsCTR

Yes

Invested

$643.8

Value

$488.4

PnL

-$155.4

Record

—

5-0 (5)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$399.99

Value

$401.25

PnL

+$1.26

Record

39%

3653-5798 (9451)

ay118ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$372.23

Value

$292.29

PnL

-$79.94

Record

28%

38-97 (135)

Both legs:

Yes$264.7362¢-$78.99

No$107.4957¢-$0.94

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$292.46

Value

$264.1

PnL

-$28.36

Record

48%

288-310 (598)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$310.02

Value

$249.48

PnL

-$60.54

Record

55%

469-381 (850)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

30 of 39 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.