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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Over — but Under won instead.

Atlético Nacional vs. Once Caldas: O/U 2.5

Resolved Under. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Over. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

17

Over 56%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$566.81

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 17 top traders (53%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,649

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Over9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,686

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Under — 47%Over — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Underavg 44.4¢	$968	$2.2K	+$1.2K	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 54.3¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 39.9¢	$623.24	—	-$623.24	53% 2249-2030 (4279)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 35.1¢	$96.64	$227.37	+$130.73	35% 520-947 (1467)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 37.4¢	$59.91	$160.33	+$100.42	38% 1094-1794 (2888)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 45.4¢	$61.41	—	-$61.41	38% 1175-1954 (3129)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 37.2¢	$12.88	$34.59	+$21.71	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 38¢	$9.5	$25	+$15.51	37% 1085-1829 (2914)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 41¢	$10	$24.39	+$14.39	41% 471-687 (1158)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 54.5¢	$5.45	$10	+$4.55	48% 2245-2407 (4652)
dips.CTR	Overavg 54.6¢	$101.2	—	-$101.2	47% 1041-1174 (2215)
WA WagerWizardCTR<$100	Overavg 93.2¢	$87.36	—	-$87.36	44% 172-215 (387)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 45¢	$0.44	$0.98	+$0.54	41% 708-1019 (1727)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$9.81	—	-$9.81	45% 717-880 (1597)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$9.86	—	-$9.86	41% 353-508 (861)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$6.55	—	-$6.55	50% 168-165 (333)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 84¢	$10.08	—	-$10.08	53% 7213-6305 (13518)

Invested

$968

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

Invested

$1,143.39

Value

—

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$623.24

Value

—

PnL

-$623.24

Record

53%

2249-2030 (4279)

Invested

$96.64

Value

$227.37

PnL

+$130.73

Record

35%

520-947 (1467)

Invested

$59.91

Value

$160.33

PnL

+$100.42

Record

38%

1094-1794 (2888)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$61.41

Value

—

PnL

-$61.41

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

Invested

$12.88

Value

$34.59

PnL

+$21.71

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$9.5

Value

$25

PnL

+$15.51

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

Invested

$10

Value

$24.39

PnL

+$14.39

Record

41%

471-687 (1158)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$5.45

Value

$10

PnL

+$4.55

Record

48%

2245-2407 (4652)

Invested

$101.2

Value

—

PnL

-$101.2

Record

47%

1041-1174 (2215)

WagerWizardCTR<$100

Invested

$87.36

Value

—

PnL

-$87.36

Record

44%

172-215 (387)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.98

PnL

+$0.54

Record

41%

708-1019 (1727)

smithagentCTR<$100

Invested

$9.81

Value

—

PnL

-$9.81

Record

45%

717-880 (1597)

User7429CTR<$100

Invested

$9.86

Value

—

PnL

-$9.86

Record

41%

353-508 (861)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Invested

$6.55

Value

—

PnL

-$6.55

Record

50%

168-165 (333)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$10.08

Value

—

PnL

-$10.08

Record

53%

7213-6305 (13518)

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 17 top traders (53%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xac4bff07...afea1c

Slug

col1-atn-onc-2026-11-14-total-2pt5

Traders in this Market

Limousin

Under — $2.2K

Flaznorp

Over — $0

GoalLineGhost

Over — $0

LuckyLoo

Under — $227.37

MadridTime

Under — $160.33

topdogbigboi

Over — $0

Venusian

Under — $34.59

LightParadox

Under — $25

pauleta23

Under — $24.39

ferdinand2

Under — $10

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