Will AD Pasto win on 2026-11-04?

9 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (47%) · Yes at 100¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 5

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 47%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.8K

Combined PnL

$275.85

Smart Money Entry

70.3¢ → 100¢

+42% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 19 top traders (47%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares10,103

Combined PnL+$529.94

No10 traders

Total Value$139.21

Total Shares1,191

Combined PnL-$254.09

Yes — 47%No — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 72.3¢	$7.3K	$7.7K	+$397.87	51% 23440-22208 (45648)
oieshfn345	Yesavg 62.9¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$68.8	57% 1959-1450 (3409)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 26.4¢	$913.88	$505.2	-$408.67	50% 27338-27264 (54602)
└ No leg	Noavg 26.4¢	$805.87	$350.89	-$454.98
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 61.9¢	$108.01	$154.32	+$46.31
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 41.9¢	$1.2K	$316.13	-$847.61	53% 59089-51396 (110485)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 60.2¢	$113.69	$178.39	+$64.7
└ No leg	Noavg 41.9¢	$1.1K	$137.74	-$912.31
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 58¢	$80.68	$132.15	+$51.47	58% 44668-32527 (77195)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 48.4¢	$43.04	$46.31	+$3.27	54% 6748-5672 (12420)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 48.2¢	$43.2	$41.12	-$0.82	52% 847-783 (1630)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 54.6¢	$24.58	$36.24	+$11.66	47% 10579-11844 (22423)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 95.6¢	$23.9	$24.13	+$0.23	35% 17577-32882 (50459)
DI dips.<$100	Yesavg 96.2¢	$22.43	$23.14	+$0.72	47% 10150-11471 (21621)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$21.2	$21.99	+$0.79	45% 10667-12831 (23498)
PA pauleta23<$100	Yesavg 51.2¢	$20.5	$19.8	-$0.7	66% 23839-12063 (35902)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$17.11	$17.75	+$0.64	53% 16390-14565 (30955)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$8.2	$7.92	-$0.33	52% 8478-7730 (16208)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$13.98	$5.01	+$1.99	48% 6175-6580 (12755)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$4.4	$4.62	+$0.22	50% 35629-35110 (70739)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$3.42	$3.74	+$0.31	51% 7362-7108 (14470)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Noavg 50.2¢	$12.7	$2.82	-$3.94	45% 13709-16632 (30341)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 16.8¢	$87.35	$0.26	-$87.09	49% 14113-14680 (28793)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 41.2¢	$148.35	$0.18	-$148.17	53% 921-802 (1723)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 42.2¢	$21.1	$0.03	-$21.08	53% 928-828 (1756)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$7,345.9

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$397.87

Record

51%

23440-22208 (45648)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$1,794.74

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$68.8

Record

57%

1959-1450 (3409)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$913.88

Value

$505.2

PnL

-$408.67

Record

50%

27338-27264 (54602)

Both legs:

No$805.8726.4¢-$454.98

Yes$108.0161.9¢+$46.31

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$1,163.74

Value

$316.13

PnL

-$847.61

Record

53%

59089-51396 (110485)

Both legs:

Yes$113.6960.2¢+$64.7

No$1,050.0541.9¢-$912.31

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$80.68

Value

$132.15

PnL

+$51.47

Record

58%

44668-32527 (77195)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$43.04

Value

$46.31

PnL

+$3.27

Record

54%

6748-5672 (12420)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$43.2

Value

$41.12

PnL

-$0.82

Record

52%

847-783 (1630)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.58

Value

$36.24

PnL

+$11.66

Record

47%

10579-11844 (22423)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.9

Value

$24.13

PnL

+$0.23

Record

35%

17577-32882 (50459)

dips.<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.43

Value

$23.14

PnL

+$0.72

Record

47%

10150-11471 (21621)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Invested

$21.2

Value

$21.99

PnL

+$0.79

Record

45%

10667-12831 (23498)

pauleta23<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.5

Value

$19.8

PnL

-$0.7

Record

66%

23839-12063 (35902)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$17.11

Value

$17.75

PnL

+$0.64

Record

53%

16390-14565 (30955)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.2

Value

$7.92

PnL

-$0.33

Record

52%

8478-7730 (16208)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$13.98

Value

$5.01

PnL

+$1.99

Record

48%

6175-6580 (12755)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.62

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

35629-35110 (70739)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$3.42

Value

$3.74

PnL

+$0.31

Record

51%

7362-7108 (14470)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$12.7

Value

$2.82

PnL

-$3.94

Record

45%

13709-16632 (30341)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$87.35

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$87.09

Record

49%

14113-14680 (28793)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$148.35

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$148.17

Record

53%

921-802 (1723)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$21.1

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$21.08

Record

53%

928-828 (1756)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 19 top traders (47%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.