Trabzonspor vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5
15 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 57¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Over
21
Over 71%
1 arb excluded
$17.7K
$339.06
58.1¢ → 57.5¢
-1% since entry · 15 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
15 of 21 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR | Underavg 39.9¢ | $3.8K | $4.0K | +$242.4 | 42% 7992-11181 (19173) |
 RN1 | Overavg 57¢ | $2.9K | $3.0K | +$125 | 53% 61345-53660 (115005) |
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 57.5¢ | $2.4K | $2.8K | -$45.47 | 51% 25716-24429 (50145) |
 nigiri99CTR | Underavg 42¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$61.87 | 46% 8591-10242 (18833) |
GC GC-P | Overavg 57.7¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$36.21 | 64% 9962-5593 (15555) |
NM NM-P | Overavg 58.3¢ | $991.75 | $1.0K | +$20.12 | 64% 9921-5525 (15446) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 60¢ | $635.8 | $638.06 | +$2.25 | 50% 28410-28315 (56725) |
DV dv-pm | Overavg 61.2¢ | $628.65 | $616.32 | +$15.41 | 49% 3325-3528 (6853) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Overavg 61.9¢ | $535.83 | $532.4 | -$3.43 | 64% 1958-1090 (3048) |
SE sentrioCTR | Underavg 39.9¢ | $390.86 | $377.5 | -$13.36 | 50% 25811-25501 (51312) |
CA Cannae | Overavg 57.8¢ | $362.97 | $374.3 | +$11.34 | 53% 16798-14919 (31717) |
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | Overavg 58.2¢ | $364.64 | $360.09 | -$4.54 | 53% 6257-5537 (11794) |
 0xheavy888ARB<$100 | Overavg 57¢ | $305.84 | $320.96 | +$15.12 | 56% 7908-6321 (14229) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 57¢ | $228 | $238 | +$10 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 38¢ | $77.84 | $82.96 | +$5.12 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 57.7¢ | $348.05 | $267.75 | +$11.09 | 58% 46667-33629 (80296) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR | Underavg 39¢ | $234 | $240 | +$6 | 51% 1898-1850 (3748) |
OD Oddstorm | Overavg 57¢ | $140.22 | $141.45 | +$1.23 | 48% 7398-7927 (15325) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 57.9¢ | $150.51 | $121.64 | -$1.61 | 48% 61036-65868 (126904) |
FO forecastication4<$100 | Overavg 58¢ | $63.22 | $62.68 | -$0.55 | 50% 1380-1390 (2770) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 58¢ | $70.12 | $56.81 | -$0.56 | 55% 9735-8124 (17859) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 41.2¢ | $26.57 | $25.48 | -$1.1 | 50% 1313-1295 (2608) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Overavg 58¢ | $21.32 | $21.87 | +$0.55 | 47% 11685-13388 (25073) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 41.2¢ | $3.34 | $3.28 | -$0.06 | 52% 1365-1285 (2650) |
Invested
$3,790.91
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$242.4
Record
42%
7992-11181 (19173)
RN1Invested
$2,850
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$125
Record
53%
61345-53660 (115005)
Invested
$2,353.15
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$45.47
Record
51%
25716-24429 (50145)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$1,788.38
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$61.87
Record
46%
8591-10242 (18833)
Invested
$1,002.03
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$36.21
Record
64%
9962-5593 (15555)
Invested
$991.75
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$20.12
Record
64%
9921-5525 (15446)
Invested
$635.8
Value
$638.06
PnL
+$2.25
Record
50%
28410-28315 (56725)
Invested
$628.65
Value
$616.32
PnL
+$15.41
Record
49%
3325-3528 (6853)
Invested
$535.83
Value
$532.4
PnL
-$3.43
Record
64%
1958-1090 (3048)
Invested
$390.86
Value
$377.5
PnL
-$13.36
Record
50%
25811-25501 (51312)
Invested
$362.97
Value
$374.3
PnL
+$11.34
Record
53%
16798-14919 (31717)
Invested
$364.64
Value
$360.09
PnL
-$4.54
Record
53%
6257-5537 (11794)
0xheavy888ARB<$100Invested
$305.84
Value
$320.96
PnL
+$15.12
Record
56%
7908-6321 (14229)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$348.05
Value
$267.75
PnL
+$11.09
Record
58%
46667-33629 (80296)
Invested
$234
Value
$240
PnL
+$6
Record
51%
1898-1850 (3748)
Invested
$140.22
Value
$141.45
PnL
+$1.23
Record
48%
7398-7927 (15325)
Invested
$150.51
Value
$121.64
PnL
-$1.61
Record
48%
61036-65868 (126904)
Invested
$63.22
Value
$62.68
PnL
-$0.55
Record
50%
1380-1390 (2770)
Invested
$70.12
Value
$56.81
PnL
-$0.56
Record
55%
9735-8124 (17859)
Invested
$26.57
Value
$25.48
PnL
-$1.1
Record
50%
1313-1295 (2608)
Invested
$21.32
Value
$21.87
PnL
+$0.55
Record
47%
11685-13388 (25073)
Invested
$3.34
Value
$3.28
PnL
-$0.06
Record
52%
1365-1285 (2650)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
ferrariChampions2026
CTRUnder — $4.0K
RN1
Over — $3.0K
Flaznorp
Over — $2.8K
nigiri99
CTRUnder — $1.7K
GC-P
Over — $1.0K
NM-P
Over — $1.0K
GoalLineGhost
Over — $638.06
dv-pm
Over — $616.32
darkumbreon88
Over — $532.4
sentrio
CTRUnder — $377.5