Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-11-05?
Resolved Yes. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
53
No 71%
$96.7K
$-58.9K
Smart Money Signal
28 of 53 top traders (53%)28 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Yesavg 44.4¢ | $36.2K | $81.6K | +$45.4K | 46% 8595-10246 (18841) |
GC GC-PCTR | Noavg 54.2¢ | $4.0K | $3.3K | -$688.23 | 64% 9970-5599 (15569) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 54.5¢ | $5.0K | $3.1K | $-1.9K | 53% 16809-14937 (31746) |
SN SnakeBall | Yesavg 68¢ | $1.4K | $2.0K | +$636 | 51% 37678-36905 (74583) |
PT PT-S7 | Yesavg 56¢ | $1.6K | $1.8K | +$919.86 | 49% 3218-3391 (6609) |
FO forrestgumper | Yesavg 78.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.4K | +$305.03 | 48% 660-728 (1388) |
TO topdogbigboi | Yesavg 55.3¢ | $868.88 | $881.91 | +$13.03 | 47% 11740-13459 (25199) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Noavg 52.7¢ | $1.3K | $795.38 | -$485.51 | 50% 21199-21466 (42665) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 99¢ | $495.55 | $500.5 | +$4.95 | 34% 19214-36845 (56059) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 53.8¢ | $646.1 | $280.5 | -$143.37 | 58% 46718-33677 (80395) |
SE sentrioCTR | Noavg 54.3¢ | $503.77 | $257.73 | -$246.04 | 50% 25837-25546 (51383) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Yesavg 64.9¢ | $180.52 | $229.66 | +$49.14 | 46% 1544-1820 (3364) |
 tradecraftCTR | Noavg 52¢ | $277.57 | $221.03 | -$56.54 | 51% 6358-6140 (12498) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Yesavg 67.9¢ | $87.74 | $129.13 | +$41.39 | 52% 14506-13188 (27694) |
SH SharkVision | Yesavg 83.4¢ | $2.6K | $102.91 | +$10.19 | 70% 1450-608 (2058) |
WA waierma<$100 | Yesavg 47.2¢ | $10.27 | $21.74 | +$11.47 | 44% 80-103 (183) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Yesavg 82.7¢ | $18.55 | $12.2 | -$6.36 | 66% 24278-12377 (36655) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $50 | $0.03 | -$28.98 | 55% 1362-1132 (2494) |
 IIIllllllIIIIIIIllllllllIIIIIIIIIIIllllll | Yesavg 56¢ | $1.5K | $0.01 | +$366.45 | 33% 591-1214 (1805) |
VA Vampiro1 | Yesavg 77.6¢ | $265.48 | $0.01 | +$59.33 | 77% 3832-1126 (4958) |
AF afraz | Yesavg 53.5¢ | $214.15 | $0 | +$149.34 | 58% 181-130 (311) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 49¢ | $13.0K | — | +$7.3K | 51% 25776-24479 (50255) |
CI cigarettes | Yesavg 67¢ | $2.8K | — | +$1.3K | 53% 23594-20788 (44382) |
PU purplegatto | Yesavg 44¢ | $13.1K | — | +$16.7K | 49% 6296-6455 (12751) |
 CUTJALENHURTSCTR | Noavg 55¢ | $9.6K | — | $-9.6K | 52% 6135-5765 (11900) |
nigiri99Invested
$36,224.85
Value
$81.6K
PnL
+$45.4K
Record
46%
8595-10246 (18841)
Invested
$3,983.3
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$688.23
Record
64%
9970-5599 (15569)
Invested
$5,007.37
Value
$3.1K
PnL
$-1.9K
Record
53%
16809-14937 (31746)
Invested
$1,351.5
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$636
Record
51%
37678-36905 (74583)
Invested
$1,595.5
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$919.86
Record
49%
3218-3391 (6609)
Invested
$1,095.8
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$305.03
Record
48%
660-728 (1388)
Invested
$868.88
Value
$881.91
PnL
+$13.03
Record
47%
11740-13459 (25199)
Invested
$1,280.88
Value
$795.38
PnL
-$485.51
Record
50%
21199-21466 (42665)
Invested
$495.55
Value
$500.5
PnL
+$4.95
Record
34%
19214-36845 (56059)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$646.1
Value
$280.5
PnL
-$143.37
Record
58%
46718-33677 (80395)
Invested
$503.77
Value
$257.73
PnL
-$246.04
Record
50%
25837-25546 (51383)
Invested
$180.52
Value
$229.66
PnL
+$49.14
Record
46%
1544-1820 (3364)
tradecraftCTRInvested
$277.57
Value
$221.03
PnL
-$56.54
Record
51%
6358-6140 (12498)
Invested
$87.74
Value
$129.13
PnL
+$41.39
Record
52%
14506-13188 (27694)
Invested
$2,566.39
Value
$102.91
PnL
+$10.19
Record
70%
1450-608 (2058)
Invested
$10.27
Value
$21.74
PnL
+$11.47
Record
44%
80-103 (183)
Invested
$18.55
Value
$12.2
PnL
-$6.36
Record
66%
24278-12377 (36655)
Invested
$50
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$28.98
Record
55%
1362-1132 (2494)
IIIllllllIIIIIIIllllllllIIIIIIIIIIIllllllInvested
$1,520.92
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$366.45
Record
33%
591-1214 (1805)
Invested
$265.48
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$59.33
Record
77%
3832-1126 (4958)
Invested
$214.15
Value
$0
PnL
+$149.34
Record
58%
181-130 (311)
Invested
$12,976.66
Value
—
PnL
+$7.3K
Record
51%
25776-24479 (50255)
Invested
$2,832.34
Value
—
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
53%
23594-20788 (44382)
Invested
$13,071.6
Value
—
PnL
+$16.7K
Record
49%
6296-6455 (12751)
CUTJALENHURTSCTRInvested
$9,550.14
Value
—
PnL
$-9.6K
Record
52%
6135-5765 (11900)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
nigiri99
Yes — $81.6K
GC-P
CTRNo — $3.3K
Cannae
CTRNo — $3.1K
SnakeBall
Yes — $2.0K
PT-S7
Yes — $1.8K
forrestgumper
Yes — $1.4K
topdogbigboi
Yes — $881.91
omnibus-076daa
CTRNo — $795.38
xtxpleasecallme
Yes — $500.5
VeryLucky888
CTRNo — $280.5