Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.
Arminia Bielefeld vs. SV Meppen 1912: O/U 2.5
Resolved Over. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
8
Under 75%
1 arb excluded
$2.9K
$-1.6K
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 48.1¢ | $1.4K | — | $-1.4K | 51% 2532-2437 (4969) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 44.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.2K | -$153.86 | 55% 1640-1346 (2986) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 44.3¢ | $719.12 | — | -$719.12 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 54.6¢ | $680.13 | $1.2K | +$565.25 | |
TH TheComboConnoisseur | Overavg 58¢ | $580 | $1.0K | +$420 | 4% 2-55 (57) |
DA dashattackerCTR | Underavg 67.7¢ | $477.83 | — | -$477.83 | 61% 230-148 (378) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 44.9¢ | $303.23 | — | -$303.23 | 56% 4482-3456 (7938) |
 ER72SEN | Overavg 32.4¢ | $218.87 | $675.85 | +$456.98 | — 9-2 (11) |
MO mouzsynapseCTR | Underavg 43¢ | $218.99 | — | -$218.99 | 41% 66-94 (160) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Underavg 43.5¢ | $27.42 | — | -$27.42 | 49% 1228-1254 (2482) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Underavg 64¢ | $12.8 | — | -$12.8 | 82% 375-80 (455) |
Invested
$1,426.09
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
51%
2532-2437 (4969)
Invested
$1,399.25
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$153.86
Record
55%
1640-1346 (2986)
Both legs:
Invested
$580
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$420
Record
4%
2-55 (57)
Invested
$477.83
Value
—
PnL
-$477.83
Record
61%
230-148 (378)
RN1CTRInvested
$303.23
Value
—
PnL
-$303.23
Record
56%
4482-3456 (7938)
ER72SENInvested
$218.87
Value
$675.85
PnL
+$456.98
Record
—
9-2 (11)
Invested
$218.99
Value
—
PnL
-$218.99
Record
41%
66-94 (160)
Invested
$27.42
Value
—
PnL
-$27.42
Record
49%
1228-1254 (2482)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100Invested
$12.8
Value
—
PnL
-$12.8
Record
82%
375-80 (455)