Will Wuxi Wugou vs. Changchun Yatai end in a draw?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 91¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$2.3K
$42.11
78.9¢ → 90.5¢
+15% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 79¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$57.24 | 53% 62226-54444 (116670) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 79¢ | $609.09 | $636.07 | +$26.98 | 51% 26991-25572 (52563) |
WI Winning2...CTR | Yesavg 21.8¢ | $487.78 | $558.63 | +$70.84 | 33% 1167-2394 (3561) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $27.04 | $27.78 | +$0.74 | 50% 28862-28672 (57534) |
 oieshfn345<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $7.91 | $8.69 | +$0.78 | 57% 2106-1559 (3665) |
RN1Invested
$1,130.49
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$57.24
Record
53%
62226-54444 (116670)
Invested
$609.09
Value
$636.07
PnL
+$26.98
Record
51%
26991-25572 (52563)
Invested
$487.78
Value
$558.63
PnL
+$70.84
Record
33%
1167-2394 (3561)
Invested
$27.04
Value
$27.78
PnL
+$0.74
Record
50%
28862-28672 (57534)
oieshfn345<$100Invested
$7.91
Value
$8.69
PnL
+$0.78
Record
57%
2106-1559 (3665)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.