Will Changchun Yatai win on 2026-11-07?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.4K
$57.85
93.8¢ → 99.5¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$9.23 | 53% 62226-54444 (116670) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 91.4¢ | $789.28 | $857.93 | +$68.65 | 51% 26991-25572 (52563) |
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 95¢ | $239.4 | $241.92 | +$2.52 | 57% 2106-1559 (3665) |
WI Winning2...CTR | Yesavg 5.1¢ | $114.23 | $90 | -$24.23 | 33% 1167-2394 (3561) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $11.25 | $12.94 | +$1.69 | 50% 28862-28672 (57534) |
RN1Invested
$1,152.37
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$9.23
Record
53%
62226-54444 (116670)
Invested
$789.28
Value
$857.93
PnL
+$68.65
Record
51%
26991-25572 (52563)
oieshfn345Invested
$239.4
Value
$241.92
PnL
+$2.52
Record
57%
2106-1559 (3665)
Invested
$114.23
Value
$90
PnL
-$24.23
Record
33%
1167-2394 (3561)
Invested
$11.25
Value
$12.94
PnL
+$1.69
Record
50%
28862-28672 (57534)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.