Shaanxi Union FC vs. Guangxi Hengchen FC: O/U 4.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 91¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$2.1K
-$191.71
68.8¢ → 91¢
+32% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 69¢ | $1.6K | $1.3K | -$300.79 | 51% 26991-25572 (52563) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 31.1¢ | $687.83 | $828.59 | +$140.76 | 50% 28862-28672 (57534) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $18.57 | $22.59 | +$4.02 | 53% 62226-54444 (116670) |
WA WagerWizardCTR<$100 | Overavg 96.2¢ | $48.1 | $13.5 | -$34.6 | 84% 15044-2924 (17968) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $1.35 | -$1.1 | 47% 9510-10646 (20156) |
Invested
$1,567.07
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$300.79
Record
51%
26991-25572 (52563)
Invested
$687.83
Value
$828.59
PnL
+$140.76
Record
50%
28862-28672 (57534)
RN1<$100Invested
$18.57
Value
$22.59
PnL
+$4.02
Record
53%
62226-54444 (116670)
Invested
$48.1
Value
$13.5
PnL
-$34.6
Record
84%
15044-2924 (17968)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$1.35
PnL
-$1.1
Record
47%
9510-10646 (20156)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.