Will Dalian Kun City win on 2026-11-07?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 96¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$2.5K
-$322.42
87¢ → 96.3¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 87.1¢ | $2.2K | $1.7K | -$463.16 | 50% 28847-28660 (57507) |
 RN1CTR | Noavg 9¢ | $137.07 | $494.98 | +$357.91 | 53% 62075-54349 (116424) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 21.3¢ | $494.52 | $279.61 | -$214.92 | 51% 26884-25495 (52379) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 70¢ | $16.89 | $16.68 | -$0.21 | 50% 26296-25935 (52231) |
WA WagerWizard<$100 | Yesavg 95.2¢ | $7.02 | $4.97 | -$2.04 | 84% 15040-2923 (17963) |
Invested
$2,179.05
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$463.16
Record
50%
28847-28660 (57507)
RN1CTRInvested
$137.07
Value
$494.98
PnL
+$357.91
Record
53%
62075-54349 (116424)
Invested
$494.52
Value
$279.61
PnL
-$214.92
Record
51%
26884-25495 (52379)
Invested
$16.89
Value
$16.68
PnL
-$0.21
Record
50%
26296-25935 (52231)
Invested
$7.02
Value
$4.97
PnL
-$2.04
Record
84%
15040-2923 (17963)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.