Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will CSD Colo-Colo win on 2026-11-08?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 50¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 8

Yes50¢No50¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

30.8¢ → 50¢

+63% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares6,184

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Yes1 trader

Total Value$104.75

Total Shares246

Combined PnL-$74.92

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 65.2¢	$7.0K	$6.2K	-$881.78	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 65.2¢	$4.8K	$3.7K	$-1.1K
└ No leg	Noavg 45.5¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$226.77
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 30.5¢	$1.0K	$1.9K	+$914.55	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
RN1	Noavg 31.3¢	$772.07	$1.4K	+$593.15	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Noavg 51¢	$183.39	$181.87	-$1.52	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
└ No leg	Noavg 51¢	$113.94	$113.96	-$1.12
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49.8¢	$69	$67.91	-$0.41
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Noavg 23¢	$46.4	$115.98	+$69.58	56% 39445-31086 (70531)
dips.	Yesavg 72.9¢	$179.67	$104.75	-$74.92	46% 12026-13917 (25943)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 36¢	$34.09	$54.45	+$20.36	65% 25410-13589 (38999)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 51¢	$10.88	$10	-$0.88	53% 2967-2581 (5548)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 50¢	$16.8	$8.57	+$0.17	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 30¢	$1.5	$2.88	+$1.38	52% 6029-5557 (11586)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Noavg 32¢	$1.6	$2.88	+$1.28	71% 18400-7571 (25971)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$7,035.19

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$881.78

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Both legs:

Yes$4,763.865.2¢$-1.1K

No$2,271.3945.5¢+$226.77

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,032.94

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$914.55

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

RN1

Invested

$772.07

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$593.15

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Invested

$183.39

Value

$181.87

PnL

-$1.52

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

Both legs:

No$113.9451¢-$1.12

Yes$6949.8¢-$0.41

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Invested

$46.4

Value

$115.98

PnL

+$69.58

Record

56%

39445-31086 (70531)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$179.67

Value

$104.75

PnL

-$74.92

Record

46%

12026-13917 (25943)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$34.09

Value

$54.45

PnL

+$20.36

Record

65%

25410-13589 (38999)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$10.88

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.88

Record

53%

2967-2581 (5548)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$16.8

Value

$8.57

PnL

+$0.17

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$1.5

Value

$2.88

PnL

+$1.38

Record

52%

6029-5557 (11586)

WagerWizard<$100

Invested

$1.6

Value

$2.88

PnL

+$1.28

Record

71%

18400-7571 (25971)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.