Will Shandong Taishan FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC end in a draw?

15 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 85¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8

Yes16¢No84¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$69.38

Smart Money Entry

74.4¢ → 84.5¢

+14% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 17 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,672

Combined PnL+$109.6

Yes2 traders

Total Value$60.26

Total Shares389

Combined PnL-$40.22

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 72.3¢	$617.47	$710.32	+$92.84	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
GC GC-P	Noavg 72¢	$317.3	$328.32	+$11.02	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
NM NM-P	Noavg 72¢	$320.63	$322.86	+$2.23	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 83.6¢	$199.18	$201.37	+$2.19	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 75¢	$155.17	$152.15	-$3.03	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 80.4¢	$117.95	$123.93	+$5.99	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
LI Limousin	Noavg 75¢	$123.69	$122.11	-$1.59	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
AR ARocky33<$100	Noavg 80.8¢	$80.8	$74.5	-$6.3	76% 4579-1422 (6001)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$95.88	$57.16	-$38.72	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 74¢	$19.99	$19.99	+$0.27	53% 2714-2387 (5101)
RN1<$100	Noavg 73¢	$14.6	$16.9	+$2.3	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 72¢	$14.41	$16.71	+$2.3	51% 6523-6284 (12807)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 73.3¢	$13.6	$13.65	+$0.04	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 76¢	$7.52	$8.36	+$0.84	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Noavg 75¢	$3.75	$4.23	+$0.47	84% 15082-2932 (18014)
oieshfn345CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$4.6	$3.1	-$1.5	58% 2117-1562 (3679)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 74¢	$2.83	$2.85	+$0.02	58% 47904-34520 (82424)

Flaznorp

Invested

$617.47

Value

$710.32

PnL

+$92.84

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

GC-P

Invested

$317.3

Value

$328.32

PnL

+$11.02

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

NM-P

Invested

$320.63

Value

$322.86

PnL

+$2.23

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$199.18

Value

$201.37

PnL

+$2.19

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

LightParadox

Invested

$155.17

Value

$152.15

PnL

-$3.03

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

38791873984189

Invested

$117.95

Value

$123.93

PnL

+$5.99

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Limousin

Invested

$123.69

Value

$122.11

PnL

-$1.59

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

ARocky33<$100

Invested

$80.8

Value

$74.5

PnL

-$6.3

Record

76%

4579-1422 (6001)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$95.88

Value

$57.16

PnL

-$38.72

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$19.99

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$0.27

Record

53%

2714-2387 (5101)

RN1<$100

Invested

$14.6

Value

$16.9

PnL

+$2.3

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$14.41

Value

$16.71

PnL

+$2.3

Record

51%

6523-6284 (12807)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$13.6

Value

$13.65

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$7.52

Value

$8.36

PnL

+$0.84

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

WagerWizard<$100

Invested

$3.75

Value

$4.23

PnL

+$0.47

Record

84%

15082-2932 (18014)

oieshfn345CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.6

Value

$3.1

PnL

-$1.5

Record

58%

2117-1562 (3679)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$2.83

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 17 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.