Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-09-06?
Resolved Yes. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
16
No 83%
1 arb excluded
$466.6
-$745.39
Smart Money Signal
12 of 16 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR | Noavg 11¢ | $468.16 | — | -$135 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 44.9¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 43.4¢ | $1.5K | — | +$111.25 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
 RN1CTR | Noavg 6¢ | $980.12 | — | +$376.13 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100 | Yesavg 44.2¢ | $302.58 | $453.82 | +$151.24 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 44.2¢ | $200.39 | $453.82 | +$253.43 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 43.8¢ | $102.19 | — | -$102.19 | |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Noavg 18.7¢ | $20.79 | — | -$8.86 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
PT PT-S7<$100 | Yesavg 71¢ | $28.56 | $12.78 | +$3.03 | 49% 3284-3450 (6734) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 2.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 59994-58808 (118802) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Noavg 6¢ | $3.26 | — | +$0.16 | 36% 6093-11041 (17134) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 12.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 49% 15008-15929 (30937) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Yesavg 55.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 76% 4579-1422 (6001) |
PV pvc975<$100 | Yesavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 98% 18444-384 (18828) |
SY Syrrok<$100 | Yesavg 72.1¢ | $3.61 | — | +$1.39 | 61% 1870-1190 (3060) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Noavg 38.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 47% 9585-10702 (20287) |
 snoopy.traderCTR<$100 | Noavg 3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 40% 351-527 (878) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 17085-15197 (32282) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 63.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
Invested
$468.16
Value
—
PnL
-$135
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$1,093.5
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
Invested
$1,538.17
Value
—
PnL
+$111.25
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
RN1CTRInvested
$980.12
Value
—
PnL
+$376.13
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$302.58
Value
$453.82
PnL
+$151.24
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
Both legs:
Invested
$20.79
Value
—
PnL
-$8.86
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$28.56
Value
$12.78
PnL
+$3.03
Record
49%
3284-3450 (6734)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
59994-58808 (118802)
Invested
$3.26
Value
—
PnL
+$0.16
Record
36%
6093-11041 (17134)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
15008-15929 (30937)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
4579-1422 (6001)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
98%
18444-384 (18828)
Invested
$3.61
Value
—
PnL
+$1.39
Record
61%
1870-1190 (3060)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
9585-10702 (20287)
snoopy.traderCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
351-527 (878)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
17085-15197 (32282)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)