Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-11-08?

13 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (72%) · No at 99¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 8

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 72%

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

-$121.29

Smart Money Entry

67.6¢ → 99¢

+46% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 18 top traders (72%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares9,242

Combined PnL+$38.58

Yes5 traders

Total Value$33.32

Total Shares1,254

Combined PnL-$159.87

No — 72%Yes — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 70.8¢	$5.7K	$5.3K	-$453.47	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
oieshfn345	Noavg 68¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$133.64	58% 2117-1562 (3679)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 68.1¢	$1.2K	$846.46	+$110.55	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
LI Limousin	Noavg 44.3¢	$309.28	$660.72	+$351.45	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
WA WagerWizard	Noavg 63.9¢	$218.88	$339.13	+$120.25	84% 15082-2932 (18014)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 84.7¢	$49.67	$50.55	+$0.88	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 60.8¢	$29.18	$42.57	+$18.29	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Noavg 39.1¢	$15.5	$36.27	+$20.78	48% 5549-6067 (11616)
dips.<$100	Noavg 56.2¢	$23.88	$34.67	+$11.3	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 78.3¢	$22.01	$16.62	-$5.4	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$22.3	$16.05	-$6.25	47% 9585-10702 (20287)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 46.3¢	$12.4	$14.95	+$2.55	64% 5377-2997 (8374)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 87.6¢	$14.89	$10.8	-$4.09	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$11.19	$7.41	-$3.78	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Yesavg 25.8¢	$133.03	$5.15	-$127.88	59% 33715-23828 (57543)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$25.4	$4.58	-$20.82	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 81¢	$4.05	$3.18	-$0.88	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$1.27	$0.13	-$1.14	50% 21821-22062 (43883)

Flaznorp

Invested

$5,714.21

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$453.47

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

oieshfn345

Invested

$2,069.18

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$133.64

Record

58%

2117-1562 (3679)

38791873984189

Invested

$1,195.7

Value

$846.46

PnL

+$110.55

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Limousin

Invested

$309.28

Value

$660.72

PnL

+$351.45

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

WagerWizard

Invested

$218.88

Value

$339.13

PnL

+$120.25

Record

84%

15082-2932 (18014)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$49.67

Value

$50.55

PnL

+$0.88

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$29.18

Value

$42.57

PnL

+$18.29

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

SlickRick123<$100

Invested

$15.5

Value

$36.27

PnL

+$20.78

Record

48%

5549-6067 (11616)

dips.<$100

Invested

$23.88

Value

$34.67

PnL

+$11.3

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$22.01

Value

$16.62

PnL

-$5.4

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

lryyyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.3

Value

$16.05

PnL

-$6.25

Record

47%

9585-10702 (20287)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$12.4

Value

$14.95

PnL

+$2.55

Record

64%

5377-2997 (8374)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$14.89

Value

$10.8

PnL

-$4.09

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.19

Value

$7.41

PnL

-$3.78

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Yes

Invested

$133.03

Value

$5.15

PnL

-$127.88

Record

59%

33715-23828 (57543)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.4

Value

$4.58

PnL

-$20.82

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$4.05

Value

$3.18

PnL

-$0.88

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.27

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$1.14

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 18 top traders (72%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.