Wyoming vs. UTEP

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Wyoming (64%) · Wyoming at 70¢ · $22K held · ended Nov 15

Wyoming70¢UTEP30¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Wyoming

Consensus Traders

Wyoming 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.2K

Combined PnL

$33.1

Smart Money Entry

70.6¢ → 69.5¢

-2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralWyoming at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wyoming

9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Wyoming70%

UTEP31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wyoming9 traders

Total Value$20.1K

Total Shares28,321

Combined PnL+$138.44

UTEP5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares6,792

Combined PnL-$105.34

Wyoming — 64%UTEP — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Wyoming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on UTEP) and the top 1000 (4 on Wyoming) disagree here.

whaleWyoming 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWyoming 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUTEP 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Wyoming 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Wyomingavg 71¢	$15.0K	$15.1K	+$105.68	51% 3895-3689 (7584)
nigiri99	Wyomingavg 72¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$0	51% 646-632 (1278)
65 6512395314597884	Wyomingavg 66¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$10	50% 3962-3959 (7921)
PR primmCTR	UTEPavg 34¢	$999.99	$897.05	-$102.94	59% 1050-730 (1780)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR	UTEPavg 29¢	$644.67	$622.44	-$22.23	59% 1142-789 (1931)
VeryLucky888CTR	UTEPavg 28¢	$1.1K	$427.23	+$26.03	54% 1691-1455 (3146)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Wyomingavg 66.3¢	$378.1	$395.56	+$17.46	49% 573-601 (1174)
0xheavy888	Wyomingavg 71¢	$245.47	$248.93	+$3.46	56% 580-460 (1040)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Wyomingavg 66¢	$203.25	$204.79	+$1.54	56% 4109-3207 (7316)
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	UTEPavg 33.3¢	$72.36	$70.18	-$2.18	48% 326-352 (678)
└ UTEP leg	UTEPavg 33.3¢	$44.04	$40.36	-$3.68
└ Wyoming leg	Wyomingavg 66¢	$28.32	$29.82	+$1.5
PA Pan9X<$100	Wyomingavg 51¢	$51.51	$52.52	+$1.01	50% 1850-1880 (3730)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	UTEPavg 35.7¢	$35.78	$29.57	-$6.21	49% 588-623 (1211)
PU purplegatto<$100	Wyomingavg 72¢	$23.03	$22.23	-$0.8	68% 2657-1243 (3900)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Wyomingavg 51¢	$4.88	$4.98	+$0.1	55% 1779-1463 (3242)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	UTEPavg 30¢	$0.61	$0.62	+$0.01	47% 3580-3963 (7543)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Wyoming

Invested

$15,006.56

Value

$15.1K

PnL

+$105.68

Record

51%

3895-3689 (7584)

nigiri99

Wyoming

Invested

$2,773.44

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

646-632 (1278)

6512395314597884

Wyoming

Invested

$1,319.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$10

Record

50%

3962-3959 (7921)

primmCTR

UTEP

Invested

$999.99

Value

$897.05

PnL

-$102.94

Record

59%

1050-730 (1780)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR

UTEP

Invested

$644.67

Value

$622.44

PnL

-$22.23

Record

59%

1142-789 (1931)

VeryLucky888CTR

UTEP

Invested

$1,057.99

Value

$427.23

PnL

+$26.03

Record

54%

1691-1455 (3146)

CandleHammerDrums

Wyoming

Invested

$378.1

Value

$395.56

PnL

+$17.46

Record

49%

573-601 (1174)

0xheavy888

Wyoming

Invested

$245.47

Value

$248.93

PnL

+$3.46

Record

56%

580-460 (1040)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Wyoming

Invested

$203.25

Value

$204.79

PnL

+$1.54

Record

56%

4109-3207 (7316)

thirdt1meARB<$100

UTEP

Invested

$72.36

Value

$70.18

PnL

-$2.18

Record

48%

326-352 (678)

Both legs:

UTEP$44.0433.3¢-$3.68

Wyoming$28.3266¢+$1.5

Pan9X<$100

Wyoming

Invested

$51.51

Value

$52.52

PnL

+$1.01

Record

50%

1850-1880 (3730)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

UTEP

Invested

$35.78

Value

$29.57

PnL

-$6.21

Record

49%

588-623 (1211)

purplegatto<$100

Wyoming

Invested

$23.03

Value

$22.23

PnL

-$0.8

Record

68%

2657-1243 (3900)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Wyoming

Invested

$4.88

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

1779-1463 (3242)

38791873984189CTR<$100

UTEP

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.62

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

3580-3963 (7543)

Research grade

NeutralWyoming at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Wyoming

9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Wyoming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on UTEP) and the top 1000 (4 on Wyoming) disagree here.

whaleWyoming 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWyoming 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUTEP 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Wyoming 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wyoming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.